YaKa

Bund - Refining the Call

Short
EUREX:FGBL1!   EURO BUND FUTURES
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4
Bund is in short zone.

the perfect time target would be end of January (after Draghi made its announcement and after equities spiked and started moving down?)

Could we have a correction on both SP500 and Bund at the same time?

Perfect target: 160 (that s a major excess) in 3 weeks.

Comments

like your posts, what an amount and coverage :)
agree regarding bund, equities not sure, although crude selloff and strong dollar will have impact, but new ath are possible before that
watching buxl (GX1!) as well, today over 2 pct, such pace can hold 3-4 weeks (now in the 2nd), enough would be just 4 pct up to 166 - last year R3 level, but can shoot up to 171 in a week like in May12, will short trendline retreat or daily reversal pattern
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YaKa look4edge
important question.
these futures are backed by real bonds which have yields.
i am not familiar with buxl. what s the current yield and what would 171 mean in yield terms?
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you are right, have not calculated the yield, btw. you have in chart that 165 level in bund represents zero rate, buxl is about 3-4 points higher, so zero rate would be around 169
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YaKa look4edge
the zero rate is probably higher on buxl.
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YaKa look4edge
Yields are now at 1.30 on the 30y...

They were at 2.70 in Nov13 when the 10y was at 2.00

They seem to move parallely but the curve could flatten further and get the 30y lower... so the move could be magnified on the 30y.. that yield is getting ridiculously low though.. who knows what will happen over 30y.. this is getting paid nothing..

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GDBR30%3AIND
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thanks for link, 100bp yield on buxl is around 167 level, do not know who are the buyers, usd strength has raised volume significantly and the spread us30y:ger30y has gotten huge since august - has fed switched to buying europe? and what should actually mean all that secret and nasty TTIP etc.?
Reply
YaKa look4edge
it seems to have a beta of 1 figure on bund to 2 figures on buxl... so if bund can increase 3 figures.. buxl can increase 6 figures..
so call it 166/171 "max" top yes..

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