MaryJane

The (psychological) origin of a flag

EUREX:GG2!   Euro Bund
408 5 31
The Theory of flags
MaryJane
2 years ago
The theory of flags
Flags are my favorite technical formations. They have a trend confirmation character, are easy to recognize and grateful when you trade them correct
Ideal-typical flag:
A bullish flag is a massive, strong volume move followed by several days of sideway trading sessions to lower price action on much weaker volume followed by a second, sharp rally to new highs on accelerating volume again.
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The first big Move: First of all, you have to check in which trend phase the market is trading. Flags used as continuation pattern should always and exclusively traded with the trend direction! There should be an evidence of a sharp advance, usually on heavy volume. A gap also can be seen as the “first big move”. This move usually represents the first leg (Flagpole) of a significant advance and the following flag is merely a pause.
Flagpole: The flagpole is the distance from the first move break to the high of the flag.
Flag: A flag is a sideway / light decline-move that slopes against the previous trend. If the previous move was up, then the flag would slope down (and vice versa for a downtrend). Ideal typically this decline/sideway move finds support and stops at the 38,2 fibo-retracement of the first big move.
Duration: Flags are applicable in all timeframes but the longer the timeframe, the better they are applicable. The reliability of patterns that are very shortterm are well debated since years. I made some good experiences in the short-term trading as well as in longterm trading.
Break: For a bullish flag, trading above its flag-upper-edge (resistance) signals that the previous move has resumed.
Volume: Volume should be heavy during the advance that forms the flagpole. Heavy volume provides legitimacy for the sudden and sharp move that creates the flagpole. An expansion of volume on the resistance break lends credence to the validity of the formation and the likelihood of continuation.
Targets: The target of a flag is the length of the flagpole. The technical target is derived by adding the height of the flag pole to the eventual breakout level at point.
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MaryJane
2 years ago
In my former educational series (Basics of 1-2-3 Trading - https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/Xjknpt4S-Introduction-into-1-2-3-Trading-Pattern/) I have illustrated the important entrypoint “2”, which is a pivot point in the market when you are trading the trend.
Reminder: Entry with 1-2-3-pattern:
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A flag is very similar to this scheme and are a kind of adaption of this 1-2-3-theory.
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MaryJane
2 years ago
So much to the theory. But what really happens with such a formation above all @ the flag edges?
One must make clear for it to himself how market participants operate and think
I try to illustrate this Market Psychology with the help of an example:
1. After the strong move and the first consolidation, the traded underlying rises once more to the former High, which now can perhaps be seen as a potential resistance.
2. At this level ( yellow “1”), the shorties lie in wait to fix that level because when the price dropped once at this level it could happen over again. Technically, they likely install their stop loss orders a tick above this level. They exspect falling prices, their probably take profit is the former Low
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The traders who tried a longposition at the upper side with the first BIG MOVE are thinking: “Oh, my position went direct into the loss after opening. If the price reaches this entry-level again I will cover my position.
3. When the price dropped to the former low, traders who stood at the sideline could see a chance for buying that point (support) @ yellow “2”. The long-traders will install their stop loss orders a tick under this point with TP @ flags upper edge. Furthermore the shorties will cover their positions and also become buyers.
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Long traders who did buy the first BIG MOVE and didn`t close their position (flat) at the yellow point “1” are thinking: “Oh shit, I had the chance to cover my position without loss. Now the position is again deep in loss..when we reach again the upper level, I will close my position this time.”
4. When the price increases to the former High, more and more shorties see that and will short this level (longs vice versa) ( Longs tend to close their positions there because of the strong resistance)
5. Every time the price reaches this levels more and more traders will join this game. @ the resistance, the supplyside is getting higher and higher meanwhile @ the support the demand is getting higher and higher. @ the support side we now see a support surplus, @ the resistance we see a supply surplus.
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6. This procedure repeats to itself as long as to either the support or the resist breaks.

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MaryJane
2 years ago
What happens then?

For example the flag gets triggered on the upper side (Break of the resistance):

With every tick above the illustrated resistance, the shorties are getting more and more cold feets because their positions will suffer a loss with every uptick. Traders who are flat up to this time think about going into the market with stop-buy orders, a tick above this level. (Break-out traders) Furthermore the shorties who have to cover their positions turn to buyers and strengthen the asks. The result of it is a strong upmove, a classical shortsqueeze.

Example:
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Capture the FLAG – good luck
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MaryJane
2 years ago
If you like my analysis and find it useful, please take a second and hit the LIKE button and follow me. It takes some time to create these posts and your LIKES let me know it is helpful to you. As always, any comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.
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