Thanks. Every election year, there is a sell-off in July-August that happens in the SP500 and NDX. We hope to see that this year, although the RNC and DNC is going on right now so everyone is glued to the positive spin by Trump and then Hillary, so it might be delayed to Aug. But, this should be happening, and might coincide with a Fed Meeting / Minutes / Testimony, some sort of event, Inflation, Bad Earnings or whatever we humans put as 'justification' after the fact. I just captured a photo and moved on, and don't know how to post it here, so sorry for not being able to share what I saw. Seasonal effects of Pre-Election, Election and Post-Election year in the US is critical and it does play out, although that is a 1 year signal, and not short term. Lets see what happens in Gold and the Markets.
For this to be end of pullback, we need to see the USD to be starting to move down, or an event that is meaningful to make gold bullish again. With the Republican and Democratic convention in the US, there is a lot of focus that has turned back to politics, but on the other hand, we have a HUGE sesonal impact in July that we are soon to witness with a down move in the S&P500. Assuming some of these elements converge (USD going down, S&P500 going down, Political/Systemic Event in the world etc) we will see Gold take off from this very support level. If not, it might go down further. All bets of off if it closes below 121 or above 130 since the scenario is changing.
Kenny1924. Thanks for your feedback. I looked at the chart purly technical (speculativily) and for me when there is one candle up this is potencial pullback (of course it could be complex pullback and in that case I would be wrong. I also put a bet a little bit higher, thet I am not in the trade emidiatly.
In principle I agree with you and I have a bias that market should go down for a long time, but market is still in uptrend. I hope I will catct the tredn down.
Can you tell be about HUGE sesonal impact in July, some links?