Im having a difficult time reading your projected most likely outcome. It looks to suggest the chart breaks under that 71.5 line and trade sideways to create that right shoulder? That's atleast my opinion and I believe your chart suggest that
Today I read a lot of bad news about this share. It is always a good reason to think about buying. New traders usually read the bad news and open a short position. And then lose money. On the other hand, now is not the best time to open long positions: in the market there are too many bears.