GRTUSD - Recovery Rally Plans Updated (bear scenario included)
GRTUSD still sits in this great accumulation area.
It has hit an intermediate term 4.236 square in the nose.
A person that collaborated with me on my previous analysis had pointed out that GRT was in a symmetrical triangle at the time, and that is why they could see the 30 cent area. Since then the structure of the triangle has changed a bit, and I have done my best to illustrate it here in this analysis. If we break down to the downside, then we have a great chance of hitting 30-38 cents IMO. (to match a 47% downside move via the triangle and also a fib hit at about 36-37 cents)
The triangle still has good confluence with a move to the upside of about 87%, which takes us into the 1.20's, which I was anticipating before.
I still think that a very likely scenario to play out is a recovery rally for BTC and alts, where everything ultimately gets rejected after some upside, and then we continue down to our final bottoming targets. The final downside targets that I see for GRTUSD for right now are within the 20-40 cent area. I have personally placed buys in that area, and will add to those buys if we get this recovery rally.
I think that the dollar may take a breather on its recovery rally, and let BTC do its own recovery rally.
So - in the meantime, GRTUSD needs to break the symmetrical triangle downtrend (in green) that it is in - establish support above 75 cents, and then take a stab at the big picture downtrend (in red) that it is in. From there I could see it testing the 1.20's where I think that it will ultimately fail, and head back down to test this accumulation zone again, where we may even see the lower targets of 20-40 cents at that time.
Didn't read all of this? Upside $1.20's Downside 20-40 cent area.
Thanks!
It has hit an intermediate term 4.236 square in the nose.
A person that collaborated with me on my previous analysis had pointed out that GRT was in a symmetrical triangle at the time, and that is why they could see the 30 cent area. Since then the structure of the triangle has changed a bit, and I have done my best to illustrate it here in this analysis. If we break down to the downside, then we have a great chance of hitting 30-38 cents IMO. (to match a 47% downside move via the triangle and also a fib hit at about 36-37 cents)
The triangle still has good confluence with a move to the upside of about 87%, which takes us into the 1.20's, which I was anticipating before.
I still think that a very likely scenario to play out is a recovery rally for BTC and alts, where everything ultimately gets rejected after some upside, and then we continue down to our final bottoming targets. The final downside targets that I see for GRTUSD for right now are within the 20-40 cent area. I have personally placed buys in that area, and will add to those buys if we get this recovery rally.
I think that the dollar may take a breather on its recovery rally, and let BTC do its own recovery rally.
So - in the meantime, GRTUSD needs to break the symmetrical triangle downtrend (in green) that it is in - establish support above 75 cents, and then take a stab at the big picture downtrend (in red) that it is in. From there I could see it testing the 1.20's where I think that it will ultimately fail, and head back down to test this accumulation zone again, where we may even see the lower targets of 20-40 cents at that time.
Didn't read all of this? Upside $1.20's Downside 20-40 cent area.
Thanks!
Trade active:
Sorry, the bearish scenario right now is that we break down from this symmetrical triangle, and go into the 30's, possibly 20's.
Trade active:
Yep - this is the area for a prime opportunity if we break down from here without a relief rally. BTC needs to decide if 30-33k is its bottom before having a relief rally.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Looking at it now, you have a couple of 4 hour candle closes below the triangle, so that really does not look good. We're looking at around 45% down for now IMO.
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We just had a pretty elaborate bear trap, and I think that a recovery rally may look like this - a trip to around 90 cents, to test the big downtrend before ultimately reaching our real bottom.
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Honestly, if BTC goes super bearish - 17-26 cents would be a strong possibility IMO for Algo.
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Waiting for the break of that trendline to switch back to GRT from BTC
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I just switched back to GRT from BTC.
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I think that we hit the big pic trendline when we hit the 96 cent resistance. Not sure if we make it past that point or not.
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Entirely speculative
Trade active:
Also very speculative
