TheTrendLineInvestor

HLF - Icahn & Ackman & an Inside Candle

NYSE:HLF   HERBALIFE LTD
It is fun to sit back and watch two billionaires take different sides of a trade. You may have your favorite between the two billionaires or you may be a little more like me and ponder which side of the trade YOU would take if you were a billionaire. Someday we will find out which of them was right. But do they want to be right? I would say they just want to lock in a profit...

I don't know anything more than what i have heard in the media about this company. I am only intrigued because the billionaires are on opposite sides. I will not take the time to learn more about the company. But I will use some technical analysis to decide what may happen next...

First, the "general" technical analysis . Focus on the gray horizontal line at about $72 and the green up trend line. The shaded triangle between them shows some future boundaries for the stock price. In general, you can see that HLF             has reached the $72 level 3 times on this chart. If it can get above that level and stay there maybe it's going higher. It has also put in a series of higher lows (which allows me to draw the green uptrend line) so eventually it may continue above the $72 level. But at any time, HLF             could cross below the green uptrend line. If this happens you could make an argument that it may be finished going higher and is ready to go lower.

August and September have pretty large ranges. The range in August was about $15 and the month was a positive one. The range in September was about $12 and the month was a negative one. What does this tell us? Not much... It might be a sign of negativity but there is no clear indication that I am aware of.

Now, the more "Specific" technical analysis . Notice that the September candle is smaller than, and inside of, the August candle. There are many potential reasons for the "inside candle" of September but all in all it give us a contraction of the upper & lower boundaries. It is understood that following the break of an inside candle can give you an indication of the future direction. In this case, the break of the inside monthly candle may be an indication of which billionaire is right...

As I understand it, Icahn is sitting on a large profit and Ackman is sitting on a large loss at the moment. Could that change in the future? Maybe :)
Here is why I say maybe. Ackman said the other day that Icahn was close to selling. Maybe it was an all out lie and maybe it was a fact that was just not supposed to get out to the media...

If Icahn looks at this chart the way I do, he may be realizing he should have sold in August when HLF             was close to $70. Typically, the third failed attempt at a resistance level is not a good sign for higher prices. If Icahn has a profit he could sell and move on. There is no harm in taking profits. Yea, he bought millions more shares just recently. But big deal if he doesn't actually make money on those. He would be close to even on the new shares and have a large gain on the older shares. It is still a profit no matter how you cut it.

If Ackman can hold on until Icahn sells AND if the third failed attempt at the $72 level is an indication of lower prices, he also has a chance to book a healthy profit. Sometimes profits are more of a function of how long you are willing to hold. Especially when your initial purchase(s) were wrong and you didn't accept your error and exit the position.

Don't count out either one of these billionaires. You can have your favorite but they may both wind up victorious. It will be fun to watch for sure!

Have a great Labor Day.



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