Let me start by saying that shorter term, I expect a little higher during the next trading session, as patterns are not yet complete on the smaller timeframes. I think the odds of new highs on this timeframe are remote for the next week or two.
For those with a short attention span, I'll cut to the chase and say that I'm expecting the market to trade down to the 113.11 - 113.55 area, levels which mark the 2.618 extension of A and the ichi cloud support on hourly timeframe. I expect this to occur within the next 7-10 trading days.
Now for those who want to read my elliott babble:
We need lower first to complete the pattern illustrated. In fact, the B wave that I've shown here should suffice as a hard ceiling, and should the market trade through it, I would have to rethink my preferred count. As I discussed previously on a 15 min chart, we did five waves down, which I show here as "A". In order to complete the pattern, we need another 5 waves down for C. The market did make a new low, and in fact reversed right around the area where C = A, which is a common relationship in an ABC correction. The issue at hand here is that the market did 3 waves down to a new low, rather than the expected 5, and then rallied strong into the close on friday. That pattern is more visible on the 15min chart. C must be five waves, so unless I'm missing something, this indicates the correction has more left on the downside. Also, it indicates a likely diagonal triangle for wave C. In short that means all 5 waves will be 3 wave patterns, and will overlap, and the entire pattern will either converge, or alternately fan out, if it's the expanding variety. Triangles are very difficult patterns to play, due to all the overlap. Stops get taken out left and right, and traders on both sides get handed their lunch.
This is definitely not the time to get brazen with short positions, imo, as the market needs to prove this count to be correct, which means a reversal on the lower timeframes should underway, with reasonable resistance above.
For those with a short attention span, I'll cut to the chase and say that I'm expecting the market to trade down to the 113.11 - 113.55 area, levels which mark the 2.618 extension of A and the ichi cloud support on hourly timeframe. I expect this to occur within the next 7-10 trading days.
Now for those who want to read my elliott babble:
We need lower first to complete the pattern illustrated. In fact, the B wave that I've shown here should suffice as a hard ceiling, and should the market trade through it, I would have to rethink my preferred count. As I discussed previously on a 15 min chart, we did five waves down, which I show here as "A". In order to complete the pattern, we need another 5 waves down for C. The market did make a new low, and in fact reversed right around the area where C = A, which is a common relationship in an ABC correction. The issue at hand here is that the market did 3 waves down to a new low, rather than the expected 5, and then rallied strong into the close on friday. That pattern is more visible on the 15min chart. C must be five waves, so unless I'm missing something, this indicates the correction has more left on the downside. Also, it indicates a likely diagonal triangle for wave C. In short that means all 5 waves will be 3 wave patterns, and will overlap, and the entire pattern will either converge, or alternately fan out, if it's the expanding variety. Triangles are very difficult patterns to play, due to all the overlap. Stops get taken out left and right, and traders on both sides get handed their lunch.
This is definitely not the time to get brazen with short positions, imo, as the market needs to prove this count to be correct, which means a reversal on the lower timeframes should underway, with reasonable resistance above.
In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there's nothing more for you to do. - William Eckhardt