Standard TA shows a potential well underway here. Meanwhile a possible EW count that fits with that bull scenario shows a subwave 4 of 3.
The main problems I see with the bull thesis, as far as IWM is concerned, are two-fold:
1. The 2 main waves up are roughly equivalent, which points more toward an corrective formation, rather than an impulse wave.
2. As a general guideline, a 3rd wave (and especially a 3rd of an extended 3rd wave) should carry the highest momentum. Here momentum is roughly equivalent.
So is it possible IWM is playing catch-up here? Certainly. I wish there were more evidence to convince me one way or the other. For now, I'm forced to watch to see what the next move is. A convincing break lower will push me more toward the corrective scenario(116 will confirm it), while a new high will push me toward the wave count pictured here.
We could be looking at 0 new highs, 1 new high, or 2 new highs (pictured here), depending on the pattern being a completed C, a 3 of C, or a 3 of 5. With that much uncertainty, it's better to give the market the opportunity to show its hand.