Updated Market Risk Grid

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I post these occasionally. It keeps me honest, and I hope it does the same for you.

Once again, looking at renko charts and price channels tend to simplify price action, which can often send confusing or mixed signals. They are not to trade from, but rather to form an overall bias or context.

Still no long term signs of rotation to safety in the overall market, which should be no surprise, since we made new highs last week. The IWM/SPY ratio was starting to put in a series of lower lows last year, but has since started to reverse course into an uptrend and the short term LR base line continues its upward slope. The same goes for the SPY/TLT ratio, and SPY/GLD ratio.

With all the bears out there talking crash, and loading the boat with shorts, it's good to keep perspective on what's going on under the covers.

In the end just remember, apart from bragging rights, there's absolutely no reason to "catch the top". Play the dominant trend, and you will shift from player odds to house odds.
In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there's nothing more for you to do. - William Eckhardt
2 years ago
Very good thanks !
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