You can see here the cloud tested twice, and then the market gave up and headed down. I was actually fooled this morning by the intraday rally, but as we sold off into the close I put on some bear put vertical spreads. There's an old saying about not being able to see the forest for the trees. It's easy to get caught up in the intraday price action. Sometimes it helps to just scale back and see that resistance is still in place and the trend remains down. As long as we remain below the cloud, I'll stay bearish.
In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there's nothing more for you to do. - William Eckhardt