IWM Channel & Fib Update 07192012

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We should see the following areas of support hold should the incredible relative strength wane. As support areas break, the next lower areas of support become targets. $106 still in play on the upside via Cup + Handle breakout measured move target. I don't particularly like the setup that took us to these new highs and do have reservations as to whether it is legitimate in achieving the $106 target. I'm short IWM , but waiting to make a market direction prediction until we see the objective reached or trend channel & support violated. In other words, there hasn't been a clear short entry point for bears just yet.

My immediate downside "SHTF" target for IWM is $89. Should weakness persist, $79 comes into view with long term Elliot Wave 4 confluence waiting at trend line support. All goes well from there the eW 5 target aligns around the $120 handle in late August or September 2014. I'm not in the business of trading a year away, so please take this analysis with a grain of salt. We'll have a better idea of what we're dealing with as price action unfolds. Also note declining volume divergence contrasting the recent rise in IWM price. Cheers all!
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