Is it a correction, or a trend change? To a waver, it comes down to counting it as a corrective ABC or 3-wave complex correction, or a 5 wave move defining a higher degree move. In other words, 5 waves down on the hourly, can be a 1 or A down on the daily.
We are at the place here and now, where it could be a completed ABC, or a completed 123 on the hourly chart. We will look for clues in the coming day or two to determine if 5 waves develop. We need more than just 5 waves, however. A higher degree correction will need in addition a 3 wave retracement ideally 2/3 in nature, following by another 5 wave move to new lows.
The daily and weekly charts are not really showing a substantial enough correction yet, in my opinion. My bias remains to the downside in the coming 1-2 weeks.
We are at the place here and now, where it could be a completed ABC, or a completed 123 on the hourly chart. We will look for clues in the coming day or two to determine if 5 waves develop. We need more than just 5 waves, however. A higher degree correction will need in addition a 3 wave retracement ideally 2/3 in nature, following by another 5 wave move to new lows.
The daily and weekly charts are not really showing a substantial enough correction yet, in my opinion. My bias remains to the downside in the coming 1-2 weeks.
In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there's nothing more for you to do. - William Eckhardt