Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (18d), 9/23 (5d), recent bottom 9/24 (4d) and today 9/29 (1 day).
The Nasdaq continued it's rally attempt off the 9/24 potential bottom. The trend from the 9/3 top is leveling off and the market looks more like sideways, confirmed by the last two days of fairly tight trading ranges. However, this also could be a pause before a big move in either direction.
9/29 trading stayed above the 50d MA, but did so on lower volume. Volume has trended down since the 9/23 sell-off. Net flows out of SPY since 9/24 continue to outsize the flows into QQQ (overall ETF net flows is negative), despite the market trending up.
If the rally continues, expect some resistance around 11,250 which has been the upper side of a channel in September. That would still allow for another 1.17% gains. If some momentum can cause a continuation from 9/24, we could expect a 2.55% gain.
A small to large pullback is also certainly possible in this volatile month of moves. The one day trend points to a modest 0.10% decline. The longer term trend from market peak on 9/2, points to a return to the July Support area, a 2.94% decline.
I'm keeping the June Support line and the possibility of a future decline to that point on the map. It's possible, but not likely to have that happen in one day. As a reminder, there are only two days (July 1 and 2) filling the gap between June support and July support. A fall below July support would be dangerous.
The Nasdaq continued it's rally attempt off the 9/24 potential bottom. The trend from the 9/3 top is leveling off and the market looks more like sideways, confirmed by the last two days of fairly tight trading ranges. However, this also could be a pause before a big move in either direction.
9/29 trading stayed above the 50d MA, but did so on lower volume. Volume has trended down since the 9/23 sell-off. Net flows out of SPY since 9/24 continue to outsize the flows into QQQ (overall ETF net flows is negative), despite the market trending up.
If the rally continues, expect some resistance around 11,250 which has been the upper side of a channel in September. That would still allow for another 1.17% gains. If some momentum can cause a continuation from 9/24, we could expect a 2.55% gain.
A small to large pullback is also certainly possible in this volatile month of moves. The one day trend points to a modest 0.10% decline. The longer term trend from market peak on 9/2, points to a return to the July Support area, a 2.94% decline.
I'm keeping the June Support line and the possibility of a future decline to that point on the map. It's possible, but not likely to have that happen in one day. As a reminder, there are only two days (July 1 and 2) filling the gap between June support and July support. A fall below July support would be dangerous.
