649bruno
Short

CIRCLE THE WAGONS PART TWO, IYT: $95 PER POUND GROUND CHUCK!

AMEX:IYT   ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE ETF
88 0 5
The basic premise of Charkes-DOW is the industrials must be confirmed by the transports. The chart above shows the wide divergence of the industrials and the transports. Yes, there has been near term strength in IYT             , but the transports are still lagging badly. Since November of 2015 (green and pink regression trend, lower right) ITY has sagged lower overall. The Ichimoku Cloud in the background is for IYT             , and, if you look left to right, this is trending LOWER. The near term strength in IYT             has been on lackluster volume . The alligator jaws are feeding in an uptrend, BUT, if you were to look on shorter time duration studies this has reversed.
As for my suggestion that we CIRCLE THE WAGONS, let's look at the Fibonacci circles and see if they fit important event dates.
The Fib .500 circle (mid June 2015) warned of an Ichimoku Cloud reversal of the Ki Jen-Sen baseline and the (thick red) conversion line.
Fib 1.272 circle (late August 2015) warned of a SEVERE DROP IN IYT             (the Ki Jen-Sen baseline and the (thick red) conversion line TANKED), the IYT             alligator fed in the downtrend. Fib 1.618 circle (September of 2015) was coincident with the S&P 500             and IYT             bottoming process. This circle is between the two intermediate bottoms.
Fib 2.618 CLEARLY CALLED THE MARKET AND IYT             TOP in December of 2015.
Fib 3.618 CLEARLY CALLED THE S&P 500             AND IYT             BOTTOMS IN February of 2016.
NOW WE ARE AT FIBONACCI 4.618. DO YOU REALLY THINK THE MARKETS ARE GOING TO ROCKET HIGHER? The evidence suggests a sharp downturn.
Let me put (no pun intended) it this way: Would you pay $95 per pound for ground chuck?
Then why would anyone buy the S&P 500             (or the transports) at a P/E of almost 25 times anticipated earnings?
I have CIRCLED THE WAGONS and anticipate much lower prices. If this happens, I will treat myself to a burger.
I will close with a quote from Spenser Tracy: “There were times my pants were so thin I could sit on a dime and tell if it was heads or tails”
My advice: Trade wisely and don't chase. I hope this has been helpful and informative. May all of your trades go well. Don.

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