4xForecaster
Short

All Targets Hit ... New Bearish Targets | #Copper #AMEX

AMEX:JJC   IPATH BLOOMBERG COPPER SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN ETN
134 0 0
Friends,

This past March 11th 2014, I offered two distinct forecast targets, namely:

1 - TG-1 = 35.20 - 11 MAR 2014

and

2 - TG-2 = 38.60 - 11 MAR 2014.

This trade was particularly tricky, as it called for one bearish target and a bullish counter-trend. However, it turned out that it hit both targets with some respectable accuracy - See original chart posted here:
snapshot
. Also, see second commentary in this link, where it was posted on TradingView:
$HG_F is this a neckline break or a false flush?
.

As of this day, I remains bearish on the metal, not only based on my predictive analysis/forecasting model, but principally based upon the fundamentals behind this economic indicator. First, the fact that China is expected to continue to default on copper-leveraged growth that has been feeding insanely into a bubble-fed ghost towns is one well documented clue. Also, Goldman-Sachs has recently turned around its long positions, now looking to short the metal (recent future short position action). Additionally, Europe continues to act as a declining market for the Chinese economy - All of these bearish markers are dots on a declining charts if one day we had to look back into a failing mechanism of inter-market disengagement on the part of bulls. Plus, let's also welcome Europe to the race to the bottom, as it recently has taken dire steps to weaken its currency. Now that most significant economies are trying to catch up with Japan's self-destructive behavior, the race to disinflation is about to ramp up towards the next chapter: Commodity deflation.


NEW TARGETS:

As of today, based on a the predictive/forecasting model, which holds no sentimental or fundamental knowledge about either the market or world-stage events, its directional bias remains bearish .

New bearish targets are:

1 - TG-3 = 33.23 - 10 JUN 2014, moderate probability

and

2 - TG-Lo = 32.42 - 10 JUN 2014, low probability.

As mentioned before, the low-probability target holds two functions: One is to remind that this price point requires a significant amount of bearish participation to ever be attained. Second: IF and ONCE it is attained, it is likely to act as a significant S/R or reversal level.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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