JNUG Breaking the Bull Flag
This is a graphic illustration of my trading models that are based on moving average trends and regression to the mean. It is a simplistic illustration on my mathematical models, but it shows how I highlight entry and exit points based on four key indicators. The Least Square Moving Average is my key sentiment indicator on the hourly chart.
My daily model tracks 5/10 day moving averages and calculates the slope of each MA. I use the slope to give me a feel for the strength of the uptrend and downtrends and I also calculate the percent of the price deviations above and below the moving averages.
I also have a second weekly model that looks for end of week price changes that exceed 2 standards deviations above or below the trend. When 2 sigma changes happen, it indicates extreme bullish/bearish sentiment and I usually enter and exit my positions then I see 2 sigma changes.
Currently, we appear to be nearing the end of a consolidation period that started January 5th and will probably break up/down by January 20th.
My expectation is a bullish move upward for 5-10 days after the breakout.
My daily model tracks 5/10 day moving averages and calculates the slope of each MA. I use the slope to give me a feel for the strength of the uptrend and downtrends and I also calculate the percent of the price deviations above and below the moving averages.
I also have a second weekly model that looks for end of week price changes that exceed 2 standards deviations above or below the trend. When 2 sigma changes happen, it indicates extreme bullish/bearish sentiment and I usually enter and exit my positions then I see 2 sigma changes.
Currently, we appear to be nearing the end of a consolidation period that started January 5th and will probably break up/down by January 20th.
My expectation is a bullish move upward for 5-10 days after the breakout.
Comment:
Trumps comments about the strong dollar have given us a clue to the direction of Gold and the junior miners. The 5/10 Day Moving Averages are showing a definite upward bias:
