After a multi-year decline in price, I think the underlying commodity has changed trend for at least the remainder of the year. A rest is needed here, though. Specifically a pullback to the price support at 33.41 is likely over the next couple months. After that I think coffee is likely to continue a developing wave 5 advance. I show that path in orange.
I show another possible count here of an ABC in blue, which will be invalidated upon completion of the wave 5 in orange. My preferred count is the 5-wave impulse in orange. The entire 5-wave sequence will be validated and complete, upon an ABC retrace likely to 50-61.8%, but all that is over a year out, and a lot can happen between now and then.
The ABC scenario could imply new lows, but one trying to play the long scenario could place a stop below the weekly cloud, or manage long trades from a lower timeframe.
I show another possible count here of an ABC in blue, which will be invalidated upon completion of the wave 5 in orange. My preferred count is the 5-wave impulse in orange. The entire 5-wave sequence will be validated and complete, upon an ABC retrace likely to 50-61.8%, but all that is over a year out, and a lot can happen between now and then.
The ABC scenario could imply new lows, but one trying to play the long scenario could place a stop below the weekly cloud, or manage long trades from a lower timeframe.
In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there's nothing more for you to do. - William Eckhardt