$Nikkei / $JPN225 At Critical Level; Favors Decline | $JPY #BOJ

FX:JPN225   Nikkei 225 Index

1 - Predictive/Forecasting Model defines 20780 as critical high/High-prob. reversal level

2 - Technical analysis would define 20961 as probable resistance level based on June 1997 and April 2000 structural level and last month's failure to break above same level.

3 - Current bar carves out a lower-low relative to last month's bar

Net Bias = BEARISH


Decline would likely seek Fibonacci handles at 38.6%, 50.0% or 61.8% significant retracement level. However, first retracement offers little to no past structural levels for reaction when compared to significant pivot range at the corresponding 50.0% Fib retracement level.


Invalidation would occur if price broke above and closed above 20961. For now, market remains taut to the upside.


Bears are gaining ground, defending a historical 20961 level. Market is taut to the upside, while technical profile is tilting towards bearish favors.

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


David Alcindor

Comment: 11 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As forecast 7 months ago, price rolled according to the dashed arrow, now nearing probable support at 14,000, as illustrated in the following chart::


David Alcindor
Good one!
+1 Reply
Hi David am just wondering if you can teach me how to use chart as am new to this and if there are books you can adevice me to buy thanks
+1 Reply
Hello @devinchi - I would pick up any introduction to technical analysis if you are just beginning. Once you read a few, you will likely discover that certain authors have a style that may best fit your own. This early in your technical education, I would not filter anything. I would stand with my mental mouth wide open in from of a gushing fire hydrant and ingest it all.

Amazon.com has a good variety on introductory books.

+3 Reply
devinchi 4xForecaster
Thank you david.
+1 Reply
do you think we should go long for any JPY pair?
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