Nikkei - Deeply Oversold, CCI divergence

FX:JPN225   Nikkei 225 Index
72 3
For the moment, Nikkei is like a 5x leveraged bet over USDJPY - for no good reason. USDJPY is falling (i.e., Yen strengthening) despite
(1) no interest-arbitrge argument;
(2) Japan's trade position DETERIORATING;
(3) US and Japanese monetary authorities undertaking broadly similar jawboning, but US Fed actually 'tapering';
(4) capital outflows (foreign net selling of Japanese stocks).

So on any sensible theoretical basis - UIP, Robinson-Metzler-Bickerdyke or money-stock-growth conditions - JPY ought to be weakening.

My guess is that it's a hedge fund that's blowing up - having gone long USDJPY and NK at recent swing highs, they're now dumping NK and USDJPY . That is, the same story as happened in Crude at 147 (and again a year later, at $33, in the opposite direction)
Take off the second half of this position that was re-initiated 3 days ago.

Now you don't care if the first half goes to zero, because it effectively cost nothin'.
With Nikkei being smashed today (because of Ukraine? Are you kidding me?), can re-initiate the half-position taken off a little over a week ago.
Update: take half position off (now @ 14820).
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