Voyager

Coffee scenario 2.0 Bulls or Bears??

ICEUSA:KC2!   Coffee
73 4 2
Significant Bearish Candle last week after a serie of Doji's. Can we go lower? Is 0.618 holding again?
MAJiCoffee
2 years ago
Here in Brazil, we are awaiting the response of the trees, because the harvest has just begun, in young trees (1st and 2nd harvest) is disappointing income of coffees, including whether to remain normal weather in autumn and winter (short rains) the water deficit in the soil in September and October will be enormous. The 2015 season will also be small in Arabic, so we supply deficits, because the coffee world is not sufficient to cover these deficits stocks, and world consumption grows 2% per year. Following is a chart with the COT of the last five years, who will face the hedge funds, traders company coffee are no bullet in the needle (without money)?

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=KCN14&style=technical&template=&p=WN&d=X&im=&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=0&t=BAR&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=COTDLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%2C16750848%29%3BCOTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29&chartindicator_3_code=COTDLC&chartindicator_3_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_3_param_1=26112&chartindicator_3_param_2=153&chartindicator_3_param_3=16750848&chartindicator_4_code=COTLC&chartindicator_4_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_4_param_1=26112&chartindicator_4_param_2=153&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
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Voyager MAJiCoffee
2 years ago
Nice Comment! :-) It is always good to hear the other side of the story and pure fundamentals from a real producer! If I read your story correctly, we should expect a very bullish run in Coffee prices. From a technical perspective it is possible. I think that we are in a short correction mode and then wil follow that steep channel, what is a projection of an earlier steep rise back in 2010 at almost the same season in year. I do not know what the situation was back in 2010 created this rise, You are for sure, I think, haha!
Personally I don't trade In coffee contracts. But I find it very interesting from a technical viewpoint and I am a real Coffee addict! Always fresh beans, old skool and black of course! The Coffee culture here in the Netherlands is also booming, in every small town here are shops opening specialized in all sorts of Coffee beans. Of course we traded a lot of Coffee historically. I grew up near by one of the biggest Coffee roasting factories in the Netherlands.
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MAJiCoffee Voyager
2 years ago
In 2010 the increase was due to the commodity bubble, not missing a coffee bean producing countries exported a lot of coffee. Today we have the second largest coffee climate problem, then the black frost of 1975. This dry in midsummer (JAN and FEB) here in Brazil has never happened at this intensity, including Brazil may have problems in the supply of electricity. Returning to the coffee, the market can make beautiful surprises in the long run, if you can make a recommendation of fundamental point, one can not go short, we have a very dark tunnel in the Brazilian production of Arabic coffee.
Another thing catching your comments coffee is hot right now, look at selling Nespresso coffee capsules (200 or more dollars per pound), several coffee shops opening on every corner, research showing that drinking coffee is good for health. Anyway, it's a consumer market for high, and coffee prices are inelastic, ie, can rise unabated demand may not fall increases demand, say that it is a legal drug. I would send you a chart on U.S. inflation indexed coffee in 1977 due to frost black 1975 prices adjusted for inflation will reach $ 12 per pound. The consumer market was much smaller and much larger inventories.
Now, if you really confirm field trials indicating loss of production in this crop and the next harvest (2015), prices of coffee may explode.

Do not have enough to fuel consumption at 145 million bags stocks.
Sorry for my english, is GOOGLE TRANSLATOR.

The new company--called Jacobs Douwe Egberts will be based in the Netherlands and is expected to have annual revenue of more than $7 billion, the companies said. Mondelez and D.E. Master Blenders boast strong coffee market positions throughout Europe and emerging markets such as China and Brazil.

+1 Reply
Voyager MAJiCoffee
2 years ago
Wow! what a background information. :-) I should certainly buy some longs at the right moment, haha!

Your English is fine, mine is not far better. I have a dream for a long time to travel to Brasil, maybe even immigrate in the Future. Nice Climate, Beautiful Women, but that Brazilian Portugese is not an easy language! I am better in math than studying foreign languages.

That Factory what I mentioned earlier, that is Douwe Egberts!! :-)
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