Lanmar
Long

LIVE CATTLE - Finding a bottom

CME:LE1!   LIVE CATTLE FUTURES
In the chart above I've plotted average cattle prices since February of 1980. I found that a 30 year view is typically enough to see the big picture in a market. Prices closed today (9/6/16) nearly exactly at par, which has been a major level since 2003             . From its all time low (53.xx in July 1985) to its peak (170.xx on Nov 2014), the .618% retracement sits at about $98 per cwt.

Since Feb 1980 price has never declined over 30% (avg major peak to major trough was about 28%). Since Q4 of 2014 price has declined 40%, so by all standards this is considered a somewhat rare decline in price. Though, given how high prices have gone, it is far from out of the ordinary to see a decline of this magnitude or greater. This recent price action is reminiscent of oil             in January/February. My thought is we'll see a bottom somewhere between 96 - 88. 88 seems more likely. I am going long with low leverage at 96 if price action signals a long on the short term chart. I am going long at 89 with an automatic buy order regardless of the short term price action.

Oil             is the chart above - Live cattle             is the chart below
snapshot


Source for data: http://www.investing.com/commodities/live-cattle-historical-data
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