I had 3 follow up post of Lumber futures to see the progress of the triangle breakout towards inflation or housing slump.
Since like lumber is heading for housing slump
I've decided to overlay LS1! vs SPX to see how they behave for the last two crisis.
Orange line (Lumber futures), Blue Line (SPX)
Red bold vertical line with a circle indicates the point when Lumber and SPX started to diverge. And black thin vertical line being the exact equity market top before collapsing.
For 2000 tech bubble:
Lumber peaked at Feb 2000 while SPX peaked at Aug 2000. Hence it took 6 months later for SPX to crash.
For 2008 subprime crisis
It took 14 months before SPX finally had enough of bull fun.
Currently, i am not sure whether it will be a correction or crisis
The fact is :
Lumber had peaked out since March 2013. And 24 months later SPX has yet to peak.
The million dollar question will be what is the value of X (i shall limit it to single digit??)
Since like lumber is heading for housing slump
I've decided to overlay LS1! vs SPX to see how they behave for the last two crisis.
Orange line (Lumber futures), Blue Line (SPX)
Red bold vertical line with a circle indicates the point when Lumber and SPX started to diverge. And black thin vertical line being the exact equity market top before collapsing.
For 2000 tech bubble:
Lumber peaked at Feb 2000 while SPX peaked at Aug 2000. Hence it took 6 months later for SPX to crash.
For 2008 subprime crisis
It took 14 months before SPX finally had enough of bull fun.
Currently, i am not sure whether it will be a correction or crisis
The fact is :
Lumber had peaked out since March 2013. And 24 months later SPX has yet to peak.
The million dollar question will be what is the value of X (i shall limit it to single digit??)