I bet that Litcoin will follow the bitcoin if this will crash soon so this may open for us pretty good short opportunity not only on Litecoin but other altcoin like ETH and EOS.
Why bitcoin will crash?
1. CME and CBOE cot report on 22/1/2018. This is old but still indicate us what smart/dumb money are doing.
Overall:
Institutional (Smart Money) - 344 positions short - 27 longs
Levereged Funds ( Smart Money) - 5495 shorts - 3895 longs. Those funds have their own short term strategies to trade and those numbers may change dramatically this months
Professionals (Those with capital more then 1 mil bucks) - 992 shorts - 1374 longs. For me this is mostly dumb money. Its easy to earn money in bull run but when it comes to real traders they just suck. Plot COT report to BTC over the past year and you will see that those so called "professionals" bought in panic every BTC rally that immediately reversed.
Retail Traders ( With capital less then 1 mil. DUMB MONEY) - 783 shorts - 2263 longs
This is not bearish, this is super duper bearish.
www.tradingster.com/...t/futures/fin/1330E1
www.tradingster.com/...t/futures/fin/133741
2. Fear-Greed Index. This one proved to be reliable indicator. Go long with values under 15 and short over 45. Recently it hit 46.
3. Bitfinex long/short ration. 60%/40 . Plot this chart and you will see when short getting to high - you get the rally, when short getting to low - you get a nice dump. Now, longs almost at ATH. Short are low. I expect this recent 8% increase in short to drop back so we can short at better prices. Moreover total long/short on bitfinex is 75%/25.
4. Bitmex Up/Down weekly option. Retails loaded 600 long cotracts against 50 shorts. This is a small part of the market but you see where thei sentiment is headed.
5. Tradingview gurus - majority of them is singing bull song. Check the most popular once, their ideas history and you will get to the point. Majority is never right at major inflection points.
6. Social sentiment is neutral now. Thay all think - give us a small break out and we will go. Well, they will get one.
7. Market Depth.Overall, more people want to sell crypto. 60 mil more asks then bids. 5% Depth is 10 mil bullish so expect divergence on that one and load you short.
vcdepth.io/
8. Bitmex order book.
5% order book is bullish. Expect that bullishness to wear out.
data.bitcoinity...m/6h/USD/bitmex?bp=5&b...
Technicals
1. Respecting BB and forming SymTriangle. Anticipate the breakdown. I am not sure if we will reach 2k. If whales are interested in accumulation they wil
2. Those are liquidity pools and the price may nail them but orderbook is more reliable indicar then hopium.
3. I suspect that LTC will form double top but again, look for better signals from order book. If we nails firs resistance, and order book turns bearish, this will be a great spot to short.
Overall, follow BTC. Overall if you feel like you like you want to protect your capital, like I feel because I made 5 profitable trades in row, too much excitment may threw you on the worst side. The best think you can do while trading is to take high probability trades, only. Sometimes better not to trade at all.
Why bitcoin will crash?
1. CME and CBOE cot report on 22/1/2018. This is old but still indicate us what smart/dumb money are doing.
Overall:
Institutional (Smart Money) - 344 positions short - 27 longs
Levereged Funds ( Smart Money) - 5495 shorts - 3895 longs. Those funds have their own short term strategies to trade and those numbers may change dramatically this months
Professionals (Those with capital more then 1 mil bucks) - 992 shorts - 1374 longs. For me this is mostly dumb money. Its easy to earn money in bull run but when it comes to real traders they just suck. Plot COT report to BTC over the past year and you will see that those so called "professionals" bought in panic every BTC rally that immediately reversed.
Retail Traders ( With capital less then 1 mil. DUMB MONEY) - 783 shorts - 2263 longs
This is not bearish, this is super duper bearish.
www.tradingster.com/...t/futures/fin/1330E1
www.tradingster.com/...t/futures/fin/133741
2. Fear-Greed Index. This one proved to be reliable indicator. Go long with values under 15 and short over 45. Recently it hit 46.
3. Bitfinex long/short ration. 60%/40 . Plot this chart and you will see when short getting to high - you get the rally, when short getting to low - you get a nice dump. Now, longs almost at ATH. Short are low. I expect this recent 8% increase in short to drop back so we can short at better prices. Moreover total long/short on bitfinex is 75%/25.
4. Bitmex Up/Down weekly option. Retails loaded 600 long cotracts against 50 shorts. This is a small part of the market but you see where thei sentiment is headed.
5. Tradingview gurus - majority of them is singing bull song. Check the most popular once, their ideas history and you will get to the point. Majority is never right at major inflection points.
6. Social sentiment is neutral now. Thay all think - give us a small break out and we will go. Well, they will get one.
7. Market Depth.Overall, more people want to sell crypto. 60 mil more asks then bids. 5% Depth is 10 mil bullish so expect divergence on that one and load you short.
vcdepth.io/
8. Bitmex order book.
5% order book is bullish. Expect that bullishness to wear out.
data.bitcoinity...m/6h/USD/bitmex?bp=5&b...
Technicals
1. Respecting BB and forming SymTriangle. Anticipate the breakdown. I am not sure if we will reach 2k. If whales are interested in accumulation they wil
2. Those are liquidity pools and the price may nail them but orderbook is more reliable indicar then hopium.
3. I suspect that LTC will form double top but again, look for better signals from order book. If we nails firs resistance, and order book turns bearish, this will be a great spot to short.
Overall, follow BTC. Overall if you feel like you like you want to protect your capital, like I feel because I made 5 profitable trades in row, too much excitment may threw you on the worst side. The best think you can do while trading is to take high probability trades, only. Sometimes better not to trade at all.
Comment:
Nailed Resistance LTC/USDT
Very nice stop hunt. 8 mil BTC liquidation and 20 mil ETH liq in shorts
Trade active
Comment:
entry 44. Stop loss 10% above
Trade closed: stop reached:
Stop not reached. I decided that I am not willing to risk so much. I was pretty excited the last days. Will calm down, get back to work fresh with better entries.
Trade active
Trade closed: target reached:
Timed out