btc_joe

LTC/BTC "this time is different" (lol)

BTCE:LTCBTC   Litecoin / Bitcoin
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Don't listen to me, I have no idea what i'm doing, unless of course you find something valuable within the content of the chart.
Comment: I'll save the haters the trouble, "btc_joe you have been wrong about litecoin for a year, why you post this shit" ...again, its just a chart, with information about price action, maybe that information tells you something or maybe it doesn't.

In a world where bitcoin gets bigger and bigger (and thus less and less likely to make *any consensus changes whether it be a hard fork or segwit, etc), ask yourself, does litecoin deserve a place in the market? I certainly have my opinion.

Not to mention, if it gets the lightning network before bitcoin...are you excited about this technology? I certainly am.
Comment: Bought back in with some of the ltc I had sold last week at .00325...target 1 (low .003xx's) will probably still come but glad to buy back in at lower prices. When ever this does start it will be too fast to catch so I dont want to worry about it. If target 2 seems likely to me I will probably sell some again. Gluck.
Comment: Also that fairly pronounced bull div and potential triangle break out on the 1d (RSI): LTCUSD indicators looking good on the 1d, 12h, 6h, 4h, as price is flirting with resistance. Would rather sleep in peace : )
Comment: dat falling wedge:

...looks promising. The next few days should be interesting.
Comment: Looking good, aside from a few paint job candles falling wedge still in tact, hit target 1 and bounced quite nicely, this could explode soon:
Comment: 1d RSI (w/pronounced bull div) just broke out of its triangle, and MACD has now crossed and is on the rise as well:


Food for thought, is LTC at a similar point in cycle that bitcoin was in May 2016: http://imgur.com/a/z5oS0
Comment: Looking good, next stop--resistance at .0037:
Comment: ETF denied in case you hadn't heard LOL, great news for alts IMO, could see a huge bull market here.
Comment: looking good:

As well as on the weekly which is primed, will update with the weekly picture after closing.
Comment: Weekly:
Comment: Also, notice the attacks you get for simply mentioning the possibility of a bull market in this coin...these are signs/sentiment you get at market bottoms. "there is no chance it can rise" etc.
Comment: Nice pull back on both ltc/usd, and ltc/btc as bitcoin shot up. IMO bitcoin should cool down soon. There is a very nice cup and handle forming on ltc/usd *if, and I stress *if, $4.07 or so can hold: http://imgur.com/a/mHZYB keep an eye on this, and bitcoin.
Comment: Support has held well from the 50 fib, and its starting to look like this may be a real nice cup and handle formation: http://imgur.com/a/bGy0D This should start to rise soon, and if it can break the high of $4.5, you will see FOMO start to really kick in. But, one step at a time : )
Comment: http://imgur.com/a/wXwN5 fly little chikun fly!
Comment: About to pop...I got my popcorn ready: http://imgur.com/a/6GzHP
Comment: Just another update/view of the weekly since last week's screen shot. Looking great! As you can see the price rallied to put in a healthy green candle with a nice body. This is really starting to show the beginnings of true trend reversal. Stoch on the way up now. MACD histogram just went positive. And most importantly, RSI broke out of a LONG bear trend which has been in tact since the last ltc bull market (halving pump). That is a verrrrry good sign. And of course, as if you hadn't heard things are heating up in the coup attempt on bitcoin, BU FUD. F2 pool signalling for segwit on the way. There literally could not be a more bullish environment for ltc. Stay tuned.
Comment: oh forgot the chart lol:
Comment: It look's like she's about to blow...popcorn ready.
Comment: Yet another strong weekly candle...MACD now trending upwards. And as previously mentioned RSI has broken out of its LONG ass downtrend:
Comment: F2 pool begins signaling for segwit...check: https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/8... The pieces have all come together : )
Comment: New monthly candle has printed: ...this is just the beginning IMO
Comment: Just an interesting fib time zone I thought I would share...has pretty much predicted every rally so far, this time around we started a bit earlier. Can take it with a grain of salt but seems to confirm this rally will be like past ones--parabolic and fast. Maybe the top is within the next 2-4-6 weeks? We shall see.
Comment: Litecoin is the talk of the town. We are now consistently seeing 300 out of every 500 blocks signaling for segwit (over 60%) ...we need 75%...this is inevitable. We will get there. Next stop is the 200 MA on the weekly around .012-.013:

It could dip first but many are waiting to buy, so they may just FOMO and it may never come...
Comment: Batpool is signaling!!!!
https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/8...
Here we go. This will take us over.
Comment: Also, BU crowd is pushing for a MASF...
https://medium.com/purse-essays/ready-fo...
about to read up on this...could potentially create more FUD in bitcoin land.
Comment: https://twitter.com/btc_joe/status/84914...

https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/commen...

This is the best news Litecoin has gotten since inception, in addition to the LN, ltc can lead the way on Confidential Transactions eventually as well. And miners will be contributing to development. Bitcoin will always have trouble coming to consensus on new technologies, and litecoin (being smaller and easier to get things passed on) can always take the lead and experiment, this is why the fact that its a "copy and paste" is actually a good thing.

While it's naive to think there will not be insane volatility, and inevitably a big dump that will follow the huge pump (just getting started)...Litecoin is now looking like a coin that has established a very bright future for itself.
Comment: 69% ...
Comment: This is an interesting trendline to watch on the weekly chart:


Just thinking out loud here…when we pass the threshold this will pump hard. There will likely be a pull back, which will likely provide a nice trade opportunity in the midst of this uptrend.

Zooming into the 1d chart, here is an idea to watch for:


Watch your fibs, your trendlines, your indicators. Just a loose plan for the short term : )
Comment: After seeing the huge volume on GDAX last night--on twitter Brian Armstrong confirmed with Charlie Lee that Litecoin will finally be added for payments, great news. I saw many proclaiming ltc/btc was a great short b/c of the ASIC boost news and inevitability of segwit on btc through a UASF...this to me, was some really strange backwards logic. The inevitability of segwit on btc in my view only makes live testing with an attackable bounty on ltc even *all the more valuable. I stressed to these people that shorting ltc was missing the forest for the trees, mindset should still be btfd mode not short the pop. Great future ahead. Anyway, .01 has held for now, and a small correction was healthy. I do forsee at some poitn a big correction before going higher but I don't think we are there yet, so the last update may prove to be prescient. So, at what point do all the shorters from last night start to close?' : ) I would say they are already getting nervous. And when we break .0112 we should get a vicious cycle of short closing, people going long.
Comment: Not to mention, if a UASF is coming to bitcoin, while that may be good in the long term (and price seems to have reacted well), the actual event to me would represent uncertainty, so that could be all the more reason for btc to drop in the short term. But we'll see about that one, regardless, feeling great about ltc.
Comment: .01 broke. and some bearish divergence, possible we may head back to support in the grey box to let indicators cool down. We are going higher, the question is how long it takes.
Comment: UGH Wang Chung of F2 pool made a comment about withdrawing support for segwit, some of these miners, Charlie and ltc devs communicating with him. Sheesh. Is this guy serious?
Comment: No guarantees in the short term here, be careful.
Comment: Grey box is first support, if there is panic, we could see the bottom of the channel which would be around .0062-.0064 depending on when we got there.
Comment:
Comment: Charlie Lee "I talked to Wang Chun and he will continue to signal for SegWit. Everyone's been under a lot of stress. So let's all taek a deep breath."
Comment: As mentioned in the comments, that may be all, or we could go to the grey box before going higher. Short term moves are always tougher to predict. Do you. 1d candle still seems it will close bearish but then again we had a scare that was now cleared up. Still astonished at how unprofessional these guys are but so long as segwit is coming to ltc, we are good IMO. Prohashing has also apparently committed to segwit as well. Coinbase adding Litecoin. Volume picking up on GDAX. Great things ahead for litecoin.
Comment: Lower time frames starting to look okay:
Comment: Bitcoin slowing down, will it break down from its rising wedge, or will it go parabolic? Litecoin touched down in the grey box for what could prove to be a higher low that would make for some nice hidden divergence on the 4h (shown on ltc/btc here, but similar chart for ltc/usd:
So it looks to me like either btc continues on up (in which case ltc/btc may need to test the the bottom of the channel)...or btc reverses here, and we continue on up in both ltc/usd and ltc/btc. I'm betting on the former, but if it looks like btc going to break out, i may take a nice interim trade to the bottom of the channel and increase my ltc count.
Comment: Also, as pointed out from u/atombomb in DM...there is potential a 5 wave EW pattern here:

So if we go up a bit but you start to see some weakness, that could be another route to the bottom of the channel. Just something to be aware of.
Comment: "i'm betting on the former" excuse me, the *latter !
Comment: Looking good for now:



Comment: Starting to look like we may be going to the bottom of the channel. 50 fib retracement, which is around .0071 or so
Comment:
Comment: https://twitter.com/T3naciousC/status/85...
...if this is true, and UASF is coming to ltc...would be very bullish news IMO
Comment: Was expecting .0071, and we still may get there, but bought back the vast majority of what I sold. Don't want to get screwed over if we get a USAF announcement and there's FOMO. In before the announcement : )
Comment: At resistance now...but looking good. Could just blow through and explode, or could get a bit more sideways first. But Starting to look like the recent low will hold...



Nice channel has developed on the 1d RSI
Comment: Looks like we're ready for take off.
Comment:
Comment: BW joins the party! https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/8... Easily above the 75% threshold now...just have to maintain for two weeks.
Comment: Nice channel has formed on the ltc/usd chart as well, 4h:
Comment: Looks like we're getting ready for liftoff:
Comment: Been updating both charts so forgot to update this one, as I just added to my other litecoin chart, to me it looks like LTC/USD wants $7-$8:
We'll see. But barring some change of the situation it's starting to look like segwit will not activate over this period as Jihan is desperately insecure and hell bent on blocking it. It will happen one way or another eventually, even if it takes a UASF, but maybe the moon get's put on hold for a while? Might be healthier for this rally anyway to let indicators reset. Stay tuned.
Comment: Looks like the triangle is about to break:
Comment: Target mentioned earlier was hit:

I had a bunch of orders filled on it. Tough to say if we are out of the woods yet. On the plus side hash rate from non segwit pools is dying down, but still, seems unlikely we will get activated during this two week period barring Jihan/Wang decide to let it happen. I believe Charlie is supposed to meet with them in June, so maybe things cool down until then? Then either make some sort of a deal or if not we go ahead with the UASF. Or maybe things will change quicker, who knows, stay tuned. I have my popcorn ready.
Comment: Ltc/usd looks like its about to break resistance, back in all coin for now. Great trade. Can always sell again later.
Comment: From now on I will only update this idea (realizing there were some updates on my other published idea that I forgot to add here)
Comment: In case you hadn't heard: https://medium.com/@Litecoinchina/liteco...
Comment: LTC1BTC and LTC.Top are now officially signaling...MOON
Comment: If we break the flatter channel we may just shoot right back into the parabolic channel:
Comment: Quick trade, first target .0113, second .01035 or so.
Comment:
Comment: Well, orders at .00113 were hit, and even had a few down to .011 as well, so that worked out nicely. I did think we would head lower, but this recent price action looks promising Back in all coin for now, profitable trade.
Comment: hodling tight for now...here is what I'm keeping an eye on:

Will the 1d RSI channel hold? Or will we fall out of the channel and confirm bearish divergence on both the MACD and RSI. Time will tell.
Comment: That may have been just a nice shake out of weak hands. Bull pennant forming:

We'll see. If not RSI will fall out of channel on the 1d and there will be a nice trade to the downside, but i'll believe it when I see it. Stay tuned.
Comment: Some nice bull divs here on the 4h...as long as these bull pennants hold...nothing to worry about:





Keep an eye on it.
Trade active: broke the pennants, looks like the daily channel on RSI will not hold:



Comment: As I was informed on twitter, it appears my update from this morning was accidentally put in the comments as opposed to a direct update to this chart. Here it is (I lost the exact link so just took a screenshot):
http://imgur.com/a/4kHSb
Comment: While we're on the subject, feel free to follow me on twitter @btc_joe ...i'm usually more responsive on there.
Comment:
...looks like we're ready, watch for 14.1-14.2 break, should get going after that.
Comment: Stubborn chikun don't wanna drop! Weekly on ltc/btc still suggests another week or two of down, but lets see how we close.
Comment: Kissed the apex:
Comment: Was that move up just a bull trap?

Still bearish and sticking with my trade for now (expecting a drop to .009):



Comment: Finally broke down...always good to be patient and not panic if the market moves against you...we can never predict exactly how things will go.
Comment: Something important to be aware of.

To me it looks like $12 or so is likely, going down to the dotted trendline would create a nice hidden bull:


Now, that said, as I mentioned .0099 on ltc/btc seems likely and possibly even the 100 MA (around .0082 or so), I am very bullish on bitcoin. It can go as high as $1750 possibly as soon as this week who knows:


If you take $12 and divide it by $1750 you get around .00686 ...now that doesn't mean we will go that low, but anything is possible in ltc/btc, it has a history of going lower than people think, even directly before an epic run or in the midst of it. So, the question to me is, how soon to we get to $12? That is something to keep an eye on, and might coincide with the bottom in ltc/btc.

This is how I am thinking about things and planning accordingly. There is tons of uber bullish new for ltc, this is eventually going higher, so don't panic no matter how low it goes, well at least i wont be, I will take advantage. Good luck.
Comment: Welp, price going against me for now thats for sure, but sticking with this for now. Something doesn't feel right with bitcoin about to go insanely parabolic, but absolutely could be wrong, and watching eagerly. Just would like to see a bit more before changing my mind, would rather take a bigger loss on the trade and be correct about the market, would be glad to take that loss if ltc is truly about to go nuts as well, which could very well be the case. Of course if we got some new coinbase or other that would do it for me also. Gluck, do you.
Comment: 18.2 or so is the 1.618 extensin, will ltc/usd cool down around there as bitcoin goes parabolic and get shut down at the rsi channel? Or will it join the party? That's what i'm watching
Comment: In case you hadn't heard Coinbase adds support for Litecoin...took a nice loss on that one oh well, can't win em all. To the moon.
Comment: Such mewn much wow
Comment: Litecoin has been on an absolute tear these last two months. I am a huge believer in this coin and believe it has a truly bright future ahead, but looking at the short term, it is time to start thinking about where to take some profits on this trade.

Personally, since I am a huge believer,I have a certain amount of ltc which I will keep for the long term, but I also have had a very big position in this coin and have always intended on taking some profits in bitcoin off the table. This way, I lock in huge gains in terms of how much bitcoin I have gained for the risk I put in, and then I can win no matter what as I still will have a good amount of skin in the game as well.

If you take a look at the original chart and press play, you will see 3 main targets, yellow orange and red, they are still good targets. I think yellow is very likely, and there is a good amount of resistance there. Will we blast straight through and hit orange and eventually red as the fractal shows? We certainly could, but it would also not be out of the question that we get to yellow, and sellers step in and we eventually get shut down by the descending trendline drawn from the last two major highs. Such a scenario would create a nice bearish divergence on the RSI, and possibly MACD as well.



On the other hand, MACD has broken the trendline from the last two previous highs, so this would suggest we will in fact visit the red zone in price and possibly higher as MACD heads up to test old highs.

Just some things to consider. And to be clear, the game has changed for ltc, I could not be more bullish on it long term, I really think breaking ath's in both $ and btc terms is inevitable, but this is more of a risk management thing for me personally. We could top in the previously mentioned areas and take 3-6 months off cool down before going higher, who knows, if that were the case I would want to have had some profits locked in. If that makes any sense. Anyway, that is my approach/thinking as of now, gluck to all.
Trade active: some cool down before the end of the week? Quick trade, first target low .015xx's second .014xx's
Comment: Closed on the channel break for a small loss, no biggie.
Trade active:
Comment: Kissed the 50 fib onthe weekly, ltc usd dumping hard while btc recovering nicely, ltc/btc may need some cool down for a few weeks to reset indicators. Well see.
Comment: Lets take a look ltc/usd, pronounced bearish div on RSI for the 1d:
Also a potential messy H + S on lower time frames. Are we going to $30 or $20?
Ltc/btc big picture suggests the top is in or is coming soon, stoch RSI has been a fairly reliable indicator for tops, and you also have the bear div on the RSI, and the macd at the level of a previous high:

Just my thoughts.
Comment: Possible elliot wave count to keep an eye on (wave 3 of 5 may or may not be complete yet):
Comment:
Comment: Price action seems fragile, flirting with breaking support, $20 next?
Comment: Hit the descending trendline on the weekly, careful here.
Comment:

Comment:
Comment: Nailed it:


Can see this chart for where I called this target in the update:


So is wave 4 of 5 complete?
Comment: Segwit activates in a mere hours...the red dotted fibs of the overall downtrend, namely the .5 and .618 are good targets. if we were to take out the past high (.618)...then that would cancel the bearish divergence on the ltc/btc weekly chart, and then the red target (full retrace) starts to look like a reality. Good luck.
Comment: Looking at LTC/USD...at the moment, it does look sorta bearish, but then again, bitcoin has been dropping as well. So the way I see it, as long as we don't fall out of the steeper channel for too long, and really, the 2.618 fib holds, I think ltc/btc will be okay to start making new highs again soon enough, and the previous update and targets are still valid. Stay tuned.
Comment: ...price so far has bounced perfectly off the bottom of that channel (on ltc/usd) and we also now have some more BU FUD which is good for the now officially segwit enabled litecoin:
https://twitter.com/lopp/status/86239856...
Comment: As I mentioned in the last chart update, it looked like we would fall out of the channel but that as long as the 2.618 held, and we didn't stay out of the channel too long, it would be okay. Well we fell out, there was a good trade opportunity there which I was able to take advantage of with (ltc/btc), would have mentioned it here but it was too quick.

And now here we are, the price bounced very nicely off the 2.618, and managed to spring right back into the channel. This is a very good sign, as long as the channel continues to hold, price should be okay to to start making new highs again and reach the previously mentioned targets on ltc/btc.
Comment: Forgot to add the chart:
Comment: Spartans HODL!

Looks like an inverse H + S forming on the 1h:


4h meeting channel support:


...as long as LTC/USD can hang in there ltc/btc should eventually follow.
Comment: Looks like the channel held and that inverse H + S on the 1h is about to break out:
Comment: Looks like the channel will hold and we are on the brink of a neckline breakout of that inverse H + S on the 1h:
Comment: Well there goes the inverse head and shoulders pattern : (
Comment: Litecoin looks to be in a similar position to bitcoin here. There is potentially some nice hidden bullish divergence, but it has to get going back up and fast (more so than bitcoin). It is a long way from the channel now, it could shoot right back up into it of course, but it needs to get going, otherwise there is room to continue on down for a big drop.
Trade active: This is going down it looks like, targets:


It wouldnt surprise me if we eventually go to the .011xxs
Comment: And here is a view of the 1d, rsi fell out of the channel, MACD histogram coming down now. Doesn't look pretty.
Comment: New chart, could be wrong but to me this looks like we need some real cool down before we can go higher, what I was expecting by now never came, so changed my mind:
Comment: If you followed the above published chart and updates, you did well. I had buy orders from .013 down to .012. As i indicated in the last update (in the above chart), there were great prospects for a reversal when we hit .012, and now we have bounced strongly, and created a bullish engulfing on the daily ltc/usd chart, and have an inverse H + S in the works on the 1h/2h for both ltc/usd and ltc/btc:

Comment: Just adding this new published chart "Litecoin the chikun dance"
Comment:

I do agree with your point, have been hearing from people that i'm going to regret shorting, people only agree with charts they agree with. I still think bitcoin has more to go in the future. but now divergency is bearish.
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Some would argue there's too much noise in some of your charts but I LOVE the way you integrate news and more than 2 arguments for every shift. Really really nice. Oh, hope my LTC tip on Twitter gave you a heads-up btw ;)
+1 Reply
@drubio, thanks man, haha ya i've gotten that, part of the problem is I am just lazy with my presentation. Charts are supposed to be for an audience and I use them mostly for myself and just figure why not share with others, so sometimes there will be things not full explained, etc.

Haha that was you? Good stuff.
+2 Reply
$18.64 now on BTC-e... maybe slow down at $20? Maybe not slowing down yet ;)

Let's see! It seems if anything BTC is slowing down and taking a breather for now.
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btc_joe metamorphosis11
@metamorphosis11, I'm seeing 17.64 on btc-e...1.618 is around 18.1-18.2, but of course it could just blast through...well see.
Reply
@btc_joe, Ahhhh, my number was from LTC/BTC pair rather than LTC/USD pair. Looks like current LTC/USD pair is at $17.46 and LTC/BTC pair at $18.37.

Let's see what happens.
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@btc_joe, Looks like we broke through $19 USD on BTC-e now, have you switched your position yet?
+1 Reply
btc_joe metamorphosis11
@metamorphosis11, Yes guess you must not have seen my update, coinbase added support for litecoin...
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@btc_joe, Looks like we updated near the same time. You're also a hodler of litecoin, no? Either way you win! :)
+1 Reply
btc_joe metamorphosis11
@metamorphosis11, Yes! Of course, I wasn't shorting or anything, I had just sold some with hopes of buying lower as i had done a few tiems before, but this one was a small loss, no biggie. Would much rather see the moooooon.
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