bagofXMR

Litecoin key week

BTCE:LTCBTC   Litecoin / Bitcoin
Litecoin has pumped hard in the past, and last two times retraced the whole pump and even more during a LONG bleeding period.

A month ago, LTCBTC             found support at the bottom trendline coupled with a longterm reversal zone. There it found strenght to bounce and break a +300 day downtrend.

We can see LTCBTC             is facing now a strong trendline from ATH             week candle close straight to the current previous week (27th march to 2nd april) close.

We can also see LTCBTC             is now at a strong resistance zone (0.0072-0.0082) where LTC has reversed against BTC             several times, or has at least found difficulties to cross it.
This resistance zone in the btc             pair is also coupled with a resistance zone in LTCUSD             pair around 9 usd.

This is certainly a key level (0.0072-0.0082 BTC             ) for LTCBTC             and going through it won't be easy. Litecoin should rest at these levels (above or beneath) to give traders and investors enough confidence to trust in a healthy and long-term uptrend.

I see three possible scenarios:
  • Consolidation under trendline between ~0.0077 current resistance zone and ~0.0059 potential support for a couple or more weeks.
  • Consolidation above trendline and above ~0.0077 potential support zone for a couple or more weeks
  • No stop pump with a huge weekly wick and a close under trendline

First two scenarios should lead towards a healthy uptrend after this huge breakout.

Last scenario should lead towards a long bleeding period.

I personally expect this last scenario to happen: keep pumping this week taking weekly RSI to overbought region, causing a potential huge bear div             in high TF charts, then "panic" and weekly close under the trendline .

I think this scenario is highly probable because i can feel a lot hype around Litecoin that usually leads to overleverage, that, as we all know, eventually leads to an inevitable crash. Besides we have an altcoin market starting to crash after a month of huge bullish exhuberance.

(Eg. See Bitfinex LTCBTC             longs vs shorts here)

If this happens i will probably load a short. But right now i hold no position in LTCBTC             . Stay tuned if you want to know my decission.

Against this scenario proposed, and supporting a long term bullish set up, we have weekly and monthly MACD crossing up.

I would value any long term opinion from you guys, so please leave your charts in comments so we can talk about this.
Comment:
Comment: A basket of 12 alts against USD to support this alt season concept, and that it might be ending as we speak.
Comment: Key level short/mid term for ltcusd
Comment: Zoomed in
Comment: here how the ltcbtc chart looks like right now. It has already built a +40% over the trendline, and retracing it back to 0.0077 would lead to a long bleeding period imo.
Though RSI still has some room to grow, so we could see another pump further up. Specially if bitcoin retraces as i expect it to do it.

Red lines signal potential short entries if ltcbtc reaches them
Comment: Finally, what i considered the most probable scenario, ended up happening:
Massive weekly wick (almost 45%)
Weekly close undertrendline (@0.00773)
Weekly RSI reaching overbought region



I'm short quarterlies since we had the first 4h candle close breaking the channel, something that happened at the same moment the LTCUSD spot market found the resistances shared in here a few comments above (8th April)



Here is an updated LTCUSD chart with the referred resistance lines/zone

Comment: Potential playout for ltcusd

Though this pattern is traded by longing the last bottom.
Still i'm short again LTC quarts, small short this time.
Comment: 100 contracts, 8.86$ entry
http://imgur.com/a/CC7nb
Comment: Switched to long with downtrend break and rumours of coinbase actually adding Litecoin

https://twitter.com/T3naciousC/status/851922031964827648
Comment:
Easy long :D
Comment: Closed 50% of my quarts long here, to lock in profits as it was a highly leveraged trade ('cause i didn't have much funds available).
Comment:
i'm out for now.
Will watch carefully for an other oportunity either short or long.
Comment:
small short here with profits
Comment: Got stopped on that short
It broke up again plus printed a bullish hidden div.
Comment: Trying again a short term short with small amount.
Comment:
Still holding it and added some bits on support break.
Targeting 10.1-10.2
Comment:
Covered short at slight profits.
Considering a long now with this breakout + my three alma strategy signaling buy
Comment:
and this is my place to long.
SL 11 usd.
Let's see how it goes
Comment:
Covered 60% in case it fails to make a new high.
Comment: After that last successful (though not as much as it could have been) long i didn't trade anymore as i've been on a short easter holiday (is not a profit until you actually enjoy it wasting it :P).
Now i'm short. More info about this here:
Great reentry. I haven't been watching this market the last few hours and I snatched this buy < 970 because of your post. Thanks!
Reply
You seem to be pretty good at this! I'm still learning. What is your three alma strategy?
Reply
420snoop 420snoop
@420snoop @bagofXMR .13 almost .14 looks like the resistance level imo
+1 Reply
bagofXMR 420snoop
@420snoop, thanks for sharing snoop!! I always appreciate your insights
Reply
Nice, I think she's about to pump...about to publish my chart also.
+1 Reply
bagofXMR btc_joe
@btc_joe, Easy long :D

You must be killing it ;)
Reply
JoshThomas bagofXMR
@bagofXMR, we reached 10 today, do you think it will try again or is that it for a few days?
Reply
What do you think of LTC? We have punched support down?
Where I should buying?
Reply
I don’t see convincing evidence the alt boom is over.

We are seeing higher highs and higher lows in the alt space (and my trading balance), e.g. look at the iconomi index http://coinmarketcap.com/assets/iconomi/ or combined alt coin market cap http://i.imgur.com/GQxK3A9.png

This view dovetails with my suspicion that we are in a grand crypto commodity super cycle. I suspect both btc and alts to continue a bull market and during this bull market an index fund of alts by market cap should outperform btc. (For evidence of continuing btc bull see my coinbase btc log channel https://www.tradingview.com/x/NsfIPBfN/).

For evidence that alts outperform btc in a crypto rally see here http://woobull.com/crypto-currency-index-funds-the-simulations-have-surprising-results/ (notice that alts outperformed btc in the 2013 bull market).

I’ll try to post an idea on the crypto commodities grand super cycle, but it’s basically a combination of the grand commodities super cycle (dow jones measured in gold/commodities or P/E is overpriced by historical norms, also real estate and bond bubbles have already burst leaving cash and commodities as potential investment areas) plus the realization that technology is depressing commodity prices over time (incl precious metals) and that money is a kind of technology and finally that a breakthrough in money technology like crypto means that the focus of the grand commodities super cycle will be in a specific type of cash/commodity namely crypto currencies.
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