btc_joe
Long

Litecoin Cup and Handle pattern

OKCOIN:LTCCNY   Litecoin / Chinese Yuan
1101 18 21
Welcome to the Litecoin Bull Market. Will update soon with fundamental analysis , and closer up details.
Comment: 1 day chart analysis
Comment: 1 day chart analysis:
LTC/CNY
Comment: 4h chart analysis, there are literally 3 cup and handles at different time frames here which is quite a bullish fractal phenomenon:
LTC/CNY
Comment:
LTC/CNY
Comment: All dips continued to be bought during the btc breakdown...
LTC/CNY
Comment: ...
ltc/cny
Comment: Well, that dump was pretty nuts...I think it's safe to say if you had any stop loss whatsoever you were stopped out...which commonly precedes a big rise...but still plenty of resistance to clear from major MA's, triangle, horizontal resistance. Just a quick update:
LTC/CNY
Comment:
ltccny
Comment: Messing around with/learning EW (can take with a grain of salt):
ltc/btc
Comment: Just changed the colors a bit (light blue to dark green), think its a bit clearer this way:
ltc/cny
Comment: More EW (again still learning)...my guess is we just completed wave 3 of wave 3 of overall wave 1 of this coming bull market, sorry for not using the proper terminology lol. So, if I'm correct we should get wave 4 of wave 3 coming, which by the law of alternation would be a deep one, so I could see us testing the black descending trendline and/or rising white trendline (from 1 wk chart). Then maybe a truncated wave 5 of 3 of 1 because the 3rd wave was powerful and it for wave 3 of the overall wave 1 to complete at the 1.618 fib extension would make sense. But who knows just thinking out loud, a lot depends on btc of course, but regardless of EW Litecoin looks to be finally turning around here with that last move which helped the ratio of ltc/btc turn around. Look for the golden cross coming on the daily soon. Also, the development update is already overdue, and can be coming any day/week now, maybe some of this early buying is from someone with insider knowledge who knows. Then after that there is potential for segwit to be supported by the network before btc, but no guarantees, stay tuned!
ltc/cny
Comment: It looks like wave 3 of wave 1 is complete...the fifth wave was not truncated (it made new highs)
LTC/CNY
Comment: Considering the law of alternation...since wave 2 of wave 1 was an abcde triangle...one would expect a deeper correction for wave 4 or wave 1:
ltc/cny
Comment: It would appear wave 4 of 1 is complete...tagged the 50 fib quite nicely, time to go up for wave 5:
ltc/cny
Comment: Golden cross on the daily chart:
LTC/CNY
Comment: It would appear wave 1 is complete...more confirmation when the white trendline breaks:
ltc/cny
Comment: Meh it's starting to look like that last count was off as the white trendline held, and btc failed to have even a small dip, so maybe this count was more accurate:   but again I'm a total newb when it comes to EW so take that part of hte analysis as you will...
Comment: Okayy so bitcoin finally did take breather and break down...and thus the white trendline broke on ltc/cny...so it does seem the initial count was right and wave 1 is complete.
Comment:
ltc/cny
just updated the progress on this one, still waiting on wave 2 completion
Comment: Hey guys, for those still following the newb EW analysis: Considering that bitcoin has not slowed down and thus ltc has gone higher than wave 3--I had to reevaluate things.

I think my mistake was assuming that we were in a truncated 5th wave as opposed to still correcting from wave 3 (which looks like some type of a flat a-b-c correction--shown in dark green). And this actually makes more sense from a time perspective (if the initial count was right than wave 4 would have been too short time wise).

So, anyway, this looks like the most likely count as it leaves more room for upside as we continue on up to complete wave 5 of this overall wave 1 which should terminate somewhere in the 39-57cny range:
ltc/cny
Of course a lot depends on bitcoin, if bitcoin were to finally come back down for a real correction, the above can still be correct and terminate wave 5 earlier than expected (truncation).
Comment: Didn't go as high as expected, but it does look like the correct count so wave 5 of overall wave 1 is complete:
ltc/cny


Considering the time for wave 1, one would expect wave 2 to take at least a few days, a week to complete, maybe more. So maybe some type of complex correction like an abcde triangle. We did have a nice hit of support from the white weekly ascending trendline so ns that we will go lower (could depending on btc and wave 2 can retrace up to 80% so who knows) but regardless should take some time to unfold.

Well see, again just experimenting with this aspect of the analysis. You might say, if you have to keep changing it its not that valuable, and I agree to an extent, but a. still learning/improving b. lets say I do have the right count and we are finishing up with wave 2 now (which seems to be the case) that is actually very valuable information as wave 3 should be very powerful, thus provides a good trade opportunity there.
Comment: If you take a look at the update to the chart above where I illustrated two scenarios for wave 2...it looks like the purple version (a-b-c) correction was fairly accurate. It seems wave 2 is close to completion if not already complete--depends on bitcoin (which could still fall lower). Regardless, things are looking uber bullish for litecoin.
Comment: segwit tracker: http://litecoinblockhalf.com/segwit.php
Comment: User atombomb makes an interesting point: "Something interesting to note is that the Chinese exchanges just shut down all margin trading which means no more shorting. However all margin positions are still active until closed. I think being in such a long bear market the net ratio of longs to shorts def would be on the short side for ltc which would create a profitable squeeze on the way up"
Comment: It looks like wave 2 is complete (4h chart):
LTC/CNY

(For more confirmation can wait till we break the 28-30 cny range of resistance)

Wave 3 should be powerful (1d chart):
LTC/CNY
Comment: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/f2pool-litecoins-biggest-pool-will-upgrade-segwit/
Comment: Hey guys, just wanted to update. Not much as happened since I last posted, litecoin has been super stable. As I mentioned you could wait for a break of the 28-30 range for more conformation. The big thing that's happened since my last post was obviously the suspending of withdrawals for a month for btc and ltc in China. Since ltc is much more effected by China then other alts, it is something to be wary of.

That being said, it has now been 2-3 weeks since f2 pool committed but stated that we should not expect them to signal for at least a few weeks while they prepare. So, its sort of vague but I would think that should start any week now, who knows, but when they do I expect that should be a good catalyst, which sort of corroborates this chart I put together recently (
Comment: 1 week chart)

LTC/CNY


The price has good support at these levels, and pressure is building up in terms bbands (as shown by width). Then, as you can see we have the descending pink trendline approaching soon. Which makes for a nice break out when we break through that line.

Now, it's important to note that the price action on chinese exchanges has been a bit strange and not representative of the overall market. So, I guess you can take cny prices w/ a grain of salt until withdrawals are instated. But nonetheless I have been charting this pair so I will share it to illustrate the point.
Comment: If that support does break though there is room for fall, so be careful in that scenario. I don't think its likely, even in bitcoin weakness, but if that weakness is due to a regulatory announcement who knows.
Comment: https://twitter.com/btc_joe/status/835595791708401666 (been following US$ prices for now, CNY markets seem to have gone off course for both btc and ltc)
it shows that LTC is still following btc, just in a messy and horribly delayed fashion
+3 Reply
ltc is the sadomasochists tool; it gets there in the end, but not without excessive pain
+1 Reply
@dub00, couldn't agree more, ltc loves the principle of inflicting the most pain on the most participants possible before going up. I certainly have felt the pain and been fooled a few times before, but I am glad I did not get shaken out because it seems like we are finally ready (hope I didnt just jynx it haha). With lots of the hype dying downi various other alts, and segwit likely delayed in btc (and *possibly implemented first in ltc!) I think the market is about to begin to appreciate how undervalued ltc is at the moment. Will touch on this in more detail with an update soon, anyway time will tell : )
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@dub00, sentiment over the last few weeks definitely feels like that of the end of a bear market : ) Feels similar to if you said btc was going to go up in January 15 after such a long downtrend.
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my good man! I used to follow you, but this fixation with LTC is just enough for me. Unfollowed you... sorry. Hope that you get your LTC at $50 again. Bye!
+1 Reply
btc_joe PRO phreakage
@phreakage, I can't fault you for that, I do have a strong believe in it or at least that it has one more bubble left in store, I know many don't love ltc and I can't blame them for that. Appreciate the respectful comment as opposed to some other trolls out there, anyway long term trade but certainly could be wrong. Best of luck to you and in your trades.
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@btc_joe, LTC to the moon!, i'll follow you
+1 Reply
btc_joe PRO The_Tokenator
@The_Tokenator, Thanks bud, been wrong a bunch in the past but improving my analysis and feel much more confident about this one!
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Jaqen btc_joe
@btc_joe, You've been feeling confident for way too long, you're too biased to be charting this, first get out of your position and then try again, it will be interesting to see how you chart it without holding a huge bag ;) (no offence)
+1 Reply
@Jaqen, haha none taken, very valid criticism, what I will say is that being biased does not *necessarily mean i'm wrong of course. And I believe my ta skills have improved a lot over the last year, my question to you would be, what would you say if this chart was posted by someone else? Or in other words, what specifically about this chart do you disagree with? I feel its pretty objective...of course charts are just charts and it could completely fail to come to fruition, but I actually would stand by this analysis regardless of the results, where as I may not have with past charts.
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Jaqen btc_joe
@btc_joe, To be honest, I don't see a Cup-Handle in this at all. I do see a Weekly BBANDS being tight as ..... I see a RSI bending upwards after a rounded bottom, I see a weekly price-trend being broken on OKCoin and retested and bouncing of off it, I see a weekly Stoch_RSI thats trying to curve up again allthough it was already pretty darn high, I see a weekly MACD slowly turning into its 2nd slightly bigger green candle, I see the 50-100-200 EMA over the entire range coming together as support, I see Fisher on ratio showing a potential upwards move while ratio was/is dumping, I see OBV on LTC.CNY gaining strength again after the dump from the 40.5 CNY Rally. BUT! I really really do not see this Cup-Handle you're trying to point out on the weekly chart ;)
+1 Reply
@Jaqen, Very insightful answer thank you, most of what you mention I have covered, but I sense a strong disagreement with the "cup and handle pattern" lol. So okay, maybe that was a presumptive analysis but theres a lot more to the chart than that--definitely open to being schooled on why its not technically that pattern, I claim no expertees here...I do understand that in general it is a continuation pattern as opposed to a bottoming pattern, so is that what you are getting it? So maybe call it a rounded bottom with some nice long consolidation after (white lines which make a triangle) but in my defense, had I zoomed out going back to ltc's inception, maybe one could view it as a cup and handle? Again will defer to you here.
Reply
Jaqen btc_joe
@btc_joe, I could only see it forming where i've drawn the pink lines http://i.imgur.com/j4urKl1.jpg *(excuse my MSPaint skills), but i can't even get myself to see the pattern where you've drawn it. The reason why I don't see this being a cup-handle pattern even on my pink lines is because after we've breached weekly resistance on bbands this tight, IF .... IF we go up it would be a sudden strong move, not a nice smooth continuation of that handle. But then again, it all depends on the BTC movement, it could close as a handle where i've drawn the pink line, but just not where you've drawn your blue cup.
+1 Reply
@Jaqen, I agree my cup looks pretty retarded, i was rushing when making the chart and am not very familiar with the trading views tools yet, this is what I was going for and you will have to excuse my paintbrush skills as well LOL, but anyway I guess you would call this a rounded bottom. My thinking was how it appears in a long term chart of ltc since inception and maybe that would qualify...or maybe not. Unfortunately I can't show you what I mean because tradingview only has data dating back to 2013. In terms of the shooting part up, I totally agree *if we break up, it will prob be a strong quick move, the only reason ns exactly why that part would disqualify it from being a cup and handle, but something is prob lost in translation here.
ltcbtc
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@btc_joe, I guess in your "smooth" part you mean that it would take a few more weeks to consolidate in the handle before exploding? That sorta makes sense to me, but I was under the impression if for instance we have a big parabolic 1 week cnadle that goes above 55 cny or what have you...could still be seen as C + H, but I wont fight you here : )
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Jaqen btc_joe
@btc_joe, myeah, no ... a cup-handle is a continuation pattern, you have to reverse into a bullish pattern before you can get one imo. You're trying to find it while it was still in a downtrend. I do see a Adam-Eve bottom (red) which then could turn into a cup-handle (pink) afterwards http://i.imgur.com/8C0DlZv.jpg
+1 Reply
@Jaqen, even if you were looking at log chart (1 week) dating back to inception like this: http://imgur.com/a/WHQO4 ? I guess the handle is too long? Okay, I do see the Adam-Eve, further cup and handle, interesting.
Reply
@btc_joe, Eh nevermind I see what you are saying, not a cup and handle, I'm reaching. Thanks for the constructive criticism
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