I think my mistake was assuming that we were in a truncated 5th wave as opposed to still correcting from wave 3 (which looks like some type of a flat a-b-c correction--shown in dark green). And this actually makes more sense from a time perspective (if the initial count was right than wave 4 would have been too short time wise).
So, anyway, this looks like the most likely count as it leaves more room for upside as we continue on up to complete wave 5 of this overall wave 1 which should terminate somewhere in the 39-57cny range: Of course a lot depends on bitcoin, if bitcoin were to finally come back down for a real correction, the above can still be correct and terminate wave 5 earlier than expected (truncation).
Considering the time for wave 1, one would expect wave 2 to take at least a few days, a week to complete, maybe more. So maybe some type of complex correction like an abcde triangle. We did have a nice hit of support from the white weekly ascending trendline so ns that we will go lower (could depending on btc and wave 2 can retrace up to 80% so who knows) but regardless should take some time to unfold.
Well see, again just experimenting with this aspect of the analysis. You might say, if you have to keep changing it its not that valuable, and I agree to an extent, but a. still learning/improving b. lets say I do have the right count and we are finishing up with wave 2 now (which seems to be the case) that is actually very valuable information as wave 3 should be very powerful, thus provides a good trade opportunity there.
(For more confirmation can wait till we break the 28-30 cny range of resistance)
Wave 3 should be powerful (1d chart):
That being said, it has now been 2-3 weeks since f2 pool committed but stated that we should not expect them to signal for at least a few weeks while they prepare. So, its sort of vague but I would think that should start any week now, who knows, but when they do I expect that should be a good catalyst, which sort of corroborates this chart I put together recently (
The price has good support at these levels, and pressure is building up in terms bbands (as shown by width). Then, as you can see we have the descending pink trendline approaching soon. Which makes for a nice break out when we break through that line.
Now, it's important to note that the price action on chinese exchanges has been a bit strange and not representative of the overall market. So, I guess you can take cny prices w/ a grain of salt until withdrawals are instated. But nonetheless I have been charting this pair so I will share it to illustrate the point.