Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Market stayed around the 50% retracement from the prior 2 weeks selling. Bears need to miracle to keep it below 23600 and go down again. Bulls want the measured move up which could lead to 24200 or more. We are in the middle of the range and I need strong momentum on Monday to join either side.
current market cycle: bull trend - peak bubble
key levels for next week: 22800 - 24100
bull case: Bulls want a new ath but I doubt they will get it without a better pullback. The move on Friday was strong enough to expect at least a second leg. Otherwise I am having a hard time finding arguments for the bulls. They printed a higher low, which still confirms the bull trend and bulls can argue it’s a two-legged pullback on the daily chart. Confirmation is only above 23600 and if so, I’d expect a quick move to 23800.
Invalidation is below 23400ish
bear case: Bears can argue the red bear trend line is still valid (see chart) and that we retraced about 50% of the two-week selling. If they can stay below 23600, small chance that we reverse and continue down to 23000 and make lower lows again. For now bears are not favored and around 23500 it’s best to do nothing.
Invalidation is above 23600
short term: Neutral around 23500. Can’t get much more out of the chart right now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-08-10: 22000 likely to get hit this year gain. 20000 seems a bit much for 3 months left.
comment: Market stayed around the 50% retracement from the prior 2 weeks selling. Bears need to miracle to keep it below 23600 and go down again. Bulls want the measured move up which could lead to 24200 or more. We are in the middle of the range and I need strong momentum on Monday to join either side.
current market cycle: bull trend - peak bubble
key levels for next week: 22800 - 24100
bull case: Bulls want a new ath but I doubt they will get it without a better pullback. The move on Friday was strong enough to expect at least a second leg. Otherwise I am having a hard time finding arguments for the bulls. They printed a higher low, which still confirms the bull trend and bulls can argue it’s a two-legged pullback on the daily chart. Confirmation is only above 23600 and if so, I’d expect a quick move to 23800.
Invalidation is below 23400ish
bear case: Bears can argue the red bear trend line is still valid (see chart) and that we retraced about 50% of the two-week selling. If they can stay below 23600, small chance that we reverse and continue down to 23000 and make lower lows again. For now bears are not favored and around 23500 it’s best to do nothing.
Invalidation is above 23600
short term: Neutral around 23500. Can’t get much more out of the chart right now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-08-10: 22000 likely to get hit this year gain. 20000 seems a bit much for 3 months left.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.