Followings are my opinions on MU:
Fundamental:
1. Q3 result beats expectation.
2. Those memory products are under- supplied, which will raise the sale price due to supply and demand. As a result, MU next two quarters of earnings are expected to go up.
3. Institutional holdings are 80%
Technical analysis:
1. Excluding today, Monday's closing price hits the trend line. IF bull continues, it is a good timing to buy more. IF it falls, it indicates slope of trend changes. (Gann method. Keep in mind I am just a noob in that as well.)
2. According to my Elliott wave counting, we just finished the 5th wave of a major bull.
3. Unclosed gap at $27.5 from mid May.
Conclusions/ Thoughts:
I have no idea where it is heading at the moment to be honest because there are reasons to fall nor reasons to rise. If you ask me I will expect a sideway phenomena for a while, just like what happened in later half of 2014(June to December).
The following reasons are why I think it will rise:
1. After earning release, with such a bright future, institutions load up more at current 'low' price.
2. Who does not want to challenge old record? History are deemed to repeat.
The following reasons are why I think it will drop, and I personally bias towards drop if you insist asking:
1. Institutional holdings are over 80%. One must sell and one must buy. Knowing 80% are hold by competitors already, and they have already profited; will you take such a huge risk to join the pool? Also, who will sell you the shares when you, as an institution, want to buy? Newton's 1st law: Inertia stays initial. Those who profited will want to profit more (not selling their stake), and once they start selling the bubble pops.
2. Multiple upgrades from analysts. There is no free meal; you buy what they sell. Only through selling they profit. Let's assume, conservatively, at least 10% of stocks are sold by institutions, it is still a huge amount. Where do you think the price will head to?
3. It broke my trendline, which gave me another reason that it will go down. Wednesday closing price will confirm.
I am just an amateur on stock analysis. The above are my personal opinions. Please invest at your own risk and I am not responsible for any lost/gain. However, you are welcome to leave me a comment and share what you think about $MU.
Let's see how it goes and good luck everyone. Thank you so much!
Fundamental:
1. Q3 result beats expectation.
2. Those memory products are under- supplied, which will raise the sale price due to supply and demand. As a result, MU next two quarters of earnings are expected to go up.
3. Institutional holdings are 80%
Technical analysis:
1. Excluding today, Monday's closing price hits the trend line. IF bull continues, it is a good timing to buy more. IF it falls, it indicates slope of trend changes. (Gann method. Keep in mind I am just a noob in that as well.)
2. According to my Elliott wave counting, we just finished the 5th wave of a major bull.
3. Unclosed gap at $27.5 from mid May.
Conclusions/ Thoughts:
I have no idea where it is heading at the moment to be honest because there are reasons to fall nor reasons to rise. If you ask me I will expect a sideway phenomena for a while, just like what happened in later half of 2014(June to December).
The following reasons are why I think it will rise:
1. After earning release, with such a bright future, institutions load up more at current 'low' price.
2. Who does not want to challenge old record? History are deemed to repeat.
The following reasons are why I think it will drop, and I personally bias towards drop if you insist asking:
1. Institutional holdings are over 80%. One must sell and one must buy. Knowing 80% are hold by competitors already, and they have already profited; will you take such a huge risk to join the pool? Also, who will sell you the shares when you, as an institution, want to buy? Newton's 1st law: Inertia stays initial. Those who profited will want to profit more (not selling their stake), and once they start selling the bubble pops.
2. Multiple upgrades from analysts. There is no free meal; you buy what they sell. Only through selling they profit. Let's assume, conservatively, at least 10% of stocks are sold by institutions, it is still a huge amount. Where do you think the price will head to?
3. It broke my trendline, which gave me another reason that it will go down. Wednesday closing price will confirm.
I am just an amateur on stock analysis. The above are my personal opinions. Please invest at your own risk and I am not responsible for any lost/gain. However, you are welcome to leave me a comment and share what you think about $MU.
Let's see how it goes and good luck everyone. Thank you so much!
I would like to announce that this idea is still going on as of now. Although it is at 27 ish, I think it will swing between 26 to 32 for a while. Please note I did not disclose the length of these swings as I admit I do not have the ability for such predictions. If it drops below ~26, it should be bear trend.
I will keep this idea updated. Let's see how it goes and good luck everyone.
Thanks.
Jeff