LOOK AT THE WEEKLY CHART AND YOU WILL SEE THE CYCLE! It has historically taken between 3-4 months to make the move all the way down but you would be looking at gains over 20% The has been a great indicator of this cycle and the fact that it has been under the 50 day so often lately shows that it is losing its steam. A great entry would be if it rebounds closer to 38.50, but you have 3 months to figure it out. HAPPY TRADING!!!