Hello my followers I hope you are all well. Not posted for a while.
Let's kick off with some serious trading psychology to help you in understanding my analysis.
youtu.be/cJMwBwFj5nQ
"Empty your mind. Be formless, shapeless, like water.. when you put water in a cup it becomes the cup.. when you put it in a bottle it becomes the bottle.. you put water in a teapot it becomes the teapot.. Water can flow or it can crash.. be water my friend" (quote of Bruce Lee 1970's)
( I know I'm showing my age right?)
He is saying a warrior should be flexible in their fighting style reactive to their conditions and when he does react he morphes into being the fight that can flow. You'll must BE the fight
Learn to be the market and flow with it. Don't try to beat it. Be flexible and open minded be prepared to change direction..
Market is like water it is shapeless so it never has to do what you want it to do...
MY ANALYSIS
We are backtesting a NO TRADE ZONE.
This is an identified area in a years worth of volume profile, most would have waited a long time for this area to have been tested and worryingly it went through like its nothing. You don't mess when it's there!
DO NOT TRADE until market tells us what it wants to do, continue or correct some more or resume whatever new trend.
DATA Obervations
CPI next week. The lag effect of Fed rate hikes, employment figures tend to change last. The latency between Fed action and forward looking market makers. Inflation and it latency.
We simply don't know what the data is and how makers will react so how do you? Are you smarter than them?
Fear and Greed Index
Touched extreme greed briefly last week before correcting yes it's very strong bullish momentum can't deny it.
Vix DXY
Breaking out of long standing bearish structure, inversely correlated.
It's time to RELAX and let them tell you what they want to to do NOW.
Either way WE DONT CARE. You gain nothing by having a bias RIGHT NOW the market is too over extended. News will tell you all sorts -ignore, market moves before news.
TLT
Cut bullish short term but bond value rate is crap v cash. Cash is being held at record levels where will it go?
Narrative Facts
Inflation: short term Fed curing wirh higher interest rates in ltending to keep it or go up less, which has got the bulls out with strong employment figures. Liquidy has entered market from January 2023. GDP is declining so who is hiring. Last week unemployment claims rose unexpectedly.
Weighted Nas stocks went up despite lower earnings. Are employment figures fake or accounted wrongly? Who buys stock where there have been consultant draw down in profits when prices are relatively high. Why has market gone risk on? Is it all a bear trap full of hopium? BTC behaved the worst it is the dumbest money and greed signal.
2nd week February Seasonality and history shows is when sell offs occur in Futures.
ISSUES
Extreme greed does this mean market cools?
Is it a downside correction phase in new bull trend?
Is it false break out to upside?
Will there be a much stronger upside impulse?
Is it a massive bear trap?
Is it upside correction in down trend?
Is it a new sideways structure forming?
Does it mean environment is too bullish to be shorting?
Should we do opposite of crowd sentiment?
We broke major resistance trend line does this mean it's a bull market?
Oh it so overbought it has to drop?
None of these proposition are confirmed the market will do whatever it wants regardless to your trendlines and analysis. WE DONT KNOW. NOBODY KNOWS. IGNORE YOUTUBE NONSENCE REPORTERS NEWS.
TA only permits you to identify areas of interest. I look at areas macro and mini areas if interest based purely on volume profiling on monthly, weekly, daily and 30 mins.
Be like water my friends!
Be the market and flow with it.. let it speak to you.. otherwise you will crash!
Do give me a like if you are gaining anything at all from my posts.
Let's kick off with some serious trading psychology to help you in understanding my analysis.
youtu.be/cJMwBwFj5nQ
"Empty your mind. Be formless, shapeless, like water.. when you put water in a cup it becomes the cup.. when you put it in a bottle it becomes the bottle.. you put water in a teapot it becomes the teapot.. Water can flow or it can crash.. be water my friend" (quote of Bruce Lee 1970's)
( I know I'm showing my age right?)
He is saying a warrior should be flexible in their fighting style reactive to their conditions and when he does react he morphes into being the fight that can flow. You'll must BE the fight
Learn to be the market and flow with it. Don't try to beat it. Be flexible and open minded be prepared to change direction..
Market is like water it is shapeless so it never has to do what you want it to do...
MY ANALYSIS
We are backtesting a NO TRADE ZONE.
This is an identified area in a years worth of volume profile, most would have waited a long time for this area to have been tested and worryingly it went through like its nothing. You don't mess when it's there!
DO NOT TRADE until market tells us what it wants to do, continue or correct some more or resume whatever new trend.
DATA Obervations
CPI next week. The lag effect of Fed rate hikes, employment figures tend to change last. The latency between Fed action and forward looking market makers. Inflation and it latency.
We simply don't know what the data is and how makers will react so how do you? Are you smarter than them?
Fear and Greed Index
Touched extreme greed briefly last week before correcting yes it's very strong bullish momentum can't deny it.
Vix DXY
Breaking out of long standing bearish structure, inversely correlated.
It's time to RELAX and let them tell you what they want to to do NOW.
Either way WE DONT CARE. You gain nothing by having a bias RIGHT NOW the market is too over extended. News will tell you all sorts -ignore, market moves before news.
TLT
Cut bullish short term but bond value rate is crap v cash. Cash is being held at record levels where will it go?
Narrative Facts
Inflation: short term Fed curing wirh higher interest rates in ltending to keep it or go up less, which has got the bulls out with strong employment figures. Liquidy has entered market from January 2023. GDP is declining so who is hiring. Last week unemployment claims rose unexpectedly.
Weighted Nas stocks went up despite lower earnings. Are employment figures fake or accounted wrongly? Who buys stock where there have been consultant draw down in profits when prices are relatively high. Why has market gone risk on? Is it all a bear trap full of hopium? BTC behaved the worst it is the dumbest money and greed signal.
2nd week February Seasonality and history shows is when sell offs occur in Futures.
ISSUES
Extreme greed does this mean market cools?
Is it a downside correction phase in new bull trend?
Is it false break out to upside?
Will there be a much stronger upside impulse?
Is it a massive bear trap?
Is it upside correction in down trend?
Is it a new sideways structure forming?
Does it mean environment is too bullish to be shorting?
Should we do opposite of crowd sentiment?
We broke major resistance trend line does this mean it's a bull market?
Oh it so overbought it has to drop?
None of these proposition are confirmed the market will do whatever it wants regardless to your trendlines and analysis. WE DONT KNOW. NOBODY KNOWS. IGNORE YOUTUBE NONSENCE REPORTERS NEWS.
TA only permits you to identify areas of interest. I look at areas macro and mini areas if interest based purely on volume profiling on monthly, weekly, daily and 30 mins.
Be like water my friends!
Be the market and flow with it.. let it speak to you.. otherwise you will crash!
Do give me a like if you are gaining anything at all from my posts.