$NASX - Interim Correction; Bulls Eye 5859.51 | #nasdaq $NQ
SYNOPSIS:
1 - Overall price action suggests an incomplete 5-wave impulse with Elliott Wave alternation rules giving way to a complex Wave-IV consolidation with support expected at 4104.70, compared to a simpler Wave-II which occurred between 04-2010 and 10 2011; A resultant Wave-V completion remains pending
2 - Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes ONE pending targets, namely TG-Hix = 5255.11 and a WL level suggesting high-probability reversal level, namely WL = 5859.51
3 - Interim support corresponds to alignment of both a structural level where Intermediate Wave 4 (circled) defined its residence, as well as a quantitative target generated by the same Predictive/Forecasting Model as that which generated above qualitative levels, TG-Hix and WL
A QUICK NOTE ON RSI:
I often receive comments and suggestions about RSI, pointing to so-called divergences, which are typically referred to as "bullish" or "bearish" divergences - I will be short on this, as I have hammered this topics in public lessons several times over the years, but the author had originally suggested that BEARISH divergences in RSI (RED in the RSI field) are commonly associated with BULLISH trending markets, and not with declining markets, as many junior traders tend to perpetrate the same misstatement from misinformed tutors.
If you need to use RSI for a market expected to rally, look instead for POSITIVE (neither bullish, nor bearish) divergences (GREEN in the RSI field), where the origin of the green line imposes a solid support, which price will seldom transgress (as is consistently shown in this case) - The analogy I teach is that of a "shovel", where the origin of the green line is the handle, and the tip is the shovel, propping price up and above to higher height, in a situation where price carves a HIGHER-low against a LOWER-low in RSI ... If confused, just ask me for more examples, or feel free to post some suggestions here or in another appropriate chart ... Kapish?
The inverse is true, where a NEGATIVE divergence is price, where I use the "hammer" analogy, has the handle defining a level which price will not transgress, where the right-end of the RSI (not shown in this chart, since there is no downtrend defined as of yet) would rise at a HIGHER-high, compared to a LOWER-high in price, thus giving the impression of hammering the price further DOWN.
The ORANGE lines are convergent lines, and they simply have no "telling" as to the direction, strength and extent of subsequent price action.
Hope this helps in your own analyses.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
.
1 - Overall price action suggests an incomplete 5-wave impulse with Elliott Wave alternation rules giving way to a complex Wave-IV consolidation with support expected at 4104.70, compared to a simpler Wave-II which occurred between 04-2010 and 10 2011; A resultant Wave-V completion remains pending
2 - Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes ONE pending targets, namely TG-Hix = 5255.11 and a WL level suggesting high-probability reversal level, namely WL = 5859.51
3 - Interim support corresponds to alignment of both a structural level where Intermediate Wave 4 (circled) defined its residence, as well as a quantitative target generated by the same Predictive/Forecasting Model as that which generated above qualitative levels, TG-Hix and WL
A QUICK NOTE ON RSI:
I often receive comments and suggestions about RSI, pointing to so-called divergences, which are typically referred to as "bullish" or "bearish" divergences - I will be short on this, as I have hammered this topics in public lessons several times over the years, but the author had originally suggested that BEARISH divergences in RSI (RED in the RSI field) are commonly associated with BULLISH trending markets, and not with declining markets, as many junior traders tend to perpetrate the same misstatement from misinformed tutors.
If you need to use RSI for a market expected to rally, look instead for POSITIVE (neither bullish, nor bearish) divergences (GREEN in the RSI field), where the origin of the green line imposes a solid support, which price will seldom transgress (as is consistently shown in this case) - The analogy I teach is that of a "shovel", where the origin of the green line is the handle, and the tip is the shovel, propping price up and above to higher height, in a situation where price carves a HIGHER-low against a LOWER-low in RSI ... If confused, just ask me for more examples, or feel free to post some suggestions here or in another appropriate chart ... Kapish?
The inverse is true, where a NEGATIVE divergence is price, where I use the "hammer" analogy, has the handle defining a level which price will not transgress, where the right-end of the RSI (not shown in this chart, since there is no downtrend defined as of yet) would rise at a HIGHER-high, compared to a LOWER-high in price, thus giving the impression of hammering the price further DOWN.
The ORANGE lines are convergent lines, and they simply have no "telling" as to the direction, strength and extent of subsequent price action.
Hope this helps in your own analyses.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
.
Comment:
26 OCT 2016 - Target Hit ... One more to go
Price ended up not completing a complex geometry prior to hitting the first target at $5255.11. Instead, a resilient bullish market carried from to ever increasing heights.
At this point, a time-consumptive consolidation is coiling around the first target, adding credence to that forecast level, as buyers and sellers resolve their differences.
Next ... Expect price to meet a probable reversal level near $5859.51.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Price ended up not completing a complex geometry prior to hitting the first target at $5255.11. Instead, a resilient bullish market carried from to ever increasing heights.
At this point, a time-consumptive consolidation is coiling around the first target, adding credence to that forecast level, as buyers and sellers resolve their differences.
Next ... Expect price to meet a probable reversal level near $5859.51.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Comment:
21 FEB 2017 - Chart Update: Price Hit ALL Targets:
Following is a cut/paste from the CROW Signal Service:
==========================
Traders,
Inline image
Source:
TradingView original analysis: $NASX - Interim Correction; Bulls Eye 5859.51 | #nasdaq $NQ
$NASX - Interim Correction; Bulls Eye 5859.51 | #nasdaq $NQ
$NASX - Interim Correction; Bulls Eye 5859.51 | #nasdaq $NQ — trading idea and price prediction for Nasdaq Compo...
If you followed my predictive analyses and forecasts on TradingView in the past, you may have also followed the targets defined in the $NASX index. To recapitulate, on 27 JUN 2016, I defined two bullish targets, namely:
1 - TG-Hix = 5255.11 - 27 JUN 2016, representing a qualitative "extreme-high" target
AND
2 - WL = 5859.51 - 27 JUN 2016, corresponding to a "top-most" level at which reversals are expected.
I also expected that, before the TG-Hix and WL levels would be met, an interim decline to TG-1 would occur, but bulls did not allow this interim shallow decline to occur, and instead pushed price to the first target in mid-SEP 2016, just three months from the signal release, followed by this week's second and final target.
OVERALL:
Per CROW Code method, a reversal level (not just a retracement) has been reached. Typically, I would expect price to first decline to a significant FIRST lower-low, then advance to a FIRST lower-high (relative to the historical high), and then further decline to lower-lows, relative to the first lower-low.
This price pattern would suggest a market reversal in favor of bears. Be sure to note whether the first decline occurs in a corrective fashion, and that the second decline to lower-lows occurs in a motive fashion. This would add further credence to a reversal narrative.
Talking very soon,
David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster
==========================
Following is a cut/paste from the CROW Signal Service:
==========================
Traders,
Inline image
Source:
TradingView original analysis: $NASX - Interim Correction; Bulls Eye 5859.51 | #nasdaq $NQ
$NASX - Interim Correction; Bulls Eye 5859.51 | #nasdaq $NQ
$NASX - Interim Correction; Bulls Eye 5859.51 | #nasdaq $NQ — trading idea and price prediction for Nasdaq Compo...
If you followed my predictive analyses and forecasts on TradingView in the past, you may have also followed the targets defined in the $NASX index. To recapitulate, on 27 JUN 2016, I defined two bullish targets, namely:
1 - TG-Hix = 5255.11 - 27 JUN 2016, representing a qualitative "extreme-high" target
AND
2 - WL = 5859.51 - 27 JUN 2016, corresponding to a "top-most" level at which reversals are expected.
I also expected that, before the TG-Hix and WL levels would be met, an interim decline to TG-1 would occur, but bulls did not allow this interim shallow decline to occur, and instead pushed price to the first target in mid-SEP 2016, just three months from the signal release, followed by this week's second and final target.
OVERALL:
Per CROW Code method, a reversal level (not just a retracement) has been reached. Typically, I would expect price to first decline to a significant FIRST lower-low, then advance to a FIRST lower-high (relative to the historical high), and then further decline to lower-lows, relative to the first lower-low.
This price pattern would suggest a market reversal in favor of bears. Be sure to note whether the first decline occurs in a corrective fashion, and that the second decline to lower-lows occurs in a motive fashion. This would add further credence to a reversal narrative.
Talking very soon,
David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster
==========================
Whereas an interim pattern did not develop, targets from Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intact and in force, as price now nears TG-Hix = 5255.11, as defined this past 27 JUN 2016:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974