Note (Feb 22, 2014): Ok folks, think I figured it out...will publish in a separate chart, but the above title "NAZ TOP ON JAN 22, 2014???" was off by 1 month...am now thinking the primary top in this bull happened yesterday Feb 21, 2014 (yesterday) and that the Jan 22, 2014 "top" was the left shoulder of a pattern. However, above chart was pretty close and it really respected the , as you see it bounced off them 3 times thus far...more to follow on next chart. That said, anything can (and prob. will) happen!
Note (Feb 25, 2014): Price still respecting very well. Also, the possible "Head" of the is gaining a rounding-appearance which sometimes precedes a fall...if it does, would expect to fall to 3968 area b/f moving back up to form right shoulder....TBD, of course.
Note (Feb 26, 2014): As of 1PM EST, NASX has pushed above the upper channel ...might be a very good place to go short....low risk, high reward, IMO . Close will be interesting...or if we get a head-fake pop up tomorrow b/f push down. TBD.
Note (Feb 28, 2014): NAZ put in another new high today and then gave back much of it in high ...definitely a distribution day and likely the top of the head. Action next week will show if just a retreat or something more serious.....I think more serious as this was likely top of Head in pattern....but we'll have to watch price/vol to confirm anything. This mkt has been led by Biotech sector....but they took it on the chin today...
Note: (Mar 6, 2014): ANOTHER new high for NAZ & S&P ...a bit frustrating but as the saying goes, tops are a process vice an event (like a bottom is)! But, I will say it's really respecting the above...doesn't go much above it and you can see some distro days on those: 2/19, 2/21 and 2/28...think this is carving out a very well-defined Head in a possible pattern...just need the breakdown now to the 3965 area ( vic . low of 2/5) to start forming the neckline....TBD! All the indices have well-defined Heads now except for the Dow...so not 100% sure about that....FWIW, am neither a bull/bear...rather, think risk/reward currently favors the bears.
NOTE (9MAR14): Ok, NAZ closed poorly on Friday 7MAR w/another distribution day and LOOKS as if it put in top of head, but as previous comments attest, that's arbitrary. Still, we've got a nicely formed Left Shoulder, a forming Head---possibly the top of the head on 7MAR--and then let's watch/see whether we decline from this prospective head and down to a neckline b/f a weak move back up forming a right shoulder. TBD whether this prospective pattern confirms or not.
NOTE (13MAR14): TL's speak for themselves...big down today and closed back inside the .
NOTE: (19MAR14): Today FOMC met/spoke and mkt had another distro day, even though not down much, it was a wide bar (up/down height) which isn't . So, looks like an imminent fall as most patterns have broken down or are in process....very, very, very few good charts out there to go long, IMO . Am expecting hard crash in next day or two as we've formed a well-defined head and just waiting for the to fall anytime now...plus, broken uptrend line from FEB5 bottom.
NOTE (28MAR14): After having broken through on 25MAR, NAZ sprung back to hug it today (much like a magnet)...looks now to be moving away from it (i.e. down).....next target likely 3968ish area to form neckline b/f move up to form right shoulder....TBD