Note: See previous posting on 2000 NAZ top....several similarities between 2000 NAZ top and this 2014 possible top.
Note (Feb 22, 2014): Ok folks, think I figured it out...will publish in a separate chart, but the above title "NAZ TOP ON JAN 22, 2014???" was off by 1 month...am now thinking the primary top in this bull happened yesterday Feb 21, 2014 (yesterday) and that the Jan 22, 2014 "top" was the left shoulder of a H&S pattern. However, above chart was pretty close and it really respected the trendlines, as you see it bounced off them 3 times thus far...more to follow on next chart. That said, anything can (and prob. will) happen!
Note (Feb 25, 2014): Price still respecting trendlines very well. Also, the possible "Head" of the H&S is gaining a rounding-appearance which sometimes precedes a fall...if it does, would expect to fall to 3968 area b/f moving back up to form right shoulder....TBD, of course.
Note (Feb 26, 2014): As of 1PM EST, NASX has pushed above the upper channel trendline...might be a very good place to go short....low risk, high reward, IMO. Close will be interesting...or if we get a head-fake pop up tomorrow b/f push down. TBD.
Note (Feb 28, 2014): NAZ put in another new high today and then gave back much of it in high volume...definitely a distribution day and likely the top of the head. Action next week will show if just a retreat or something more serious.....I think more serious as this was likely top of Head in Head & Shoulders pattern....but we'll have to watch price/vol to confirm anything. This mkt has been led by Biotech sector....but they took it on the chin today...
Note: (Mar 6, 2014): ANOTHER new high for NAZ & S&P...a bit frustrating but as the saying goes, tops are a process vice an event (like a bottom is)! But, I will say it's really respecting the trendline above...doesn't go much above it and you can see some distro days on those: 2/19, 2/21 and 2/28...think this is carving out a very well-defined Head in a possible H&S pattern...just need the breakdown now to the 3965 area (vic. low of 2/5) to start forming the neckline....TBD! All the indices have well-defined Heads now except for the Dow...so not 100% sure about that....FWIW, am neither a bull/bear...rather, think risk/reward currently favors the bears.
NOTE (9MAR14): Ok, NAZ closed poorly on Friday 7MAR w/another distribution day and LOOKS as if it put in top of head, but as previous comments attest, that's arbitrary. Still, we've got a nicely formed Left Shoulder, a forming Head---possibly the top of the head on 7MAR--and then let's watch/see whether we decline from this prospective head and down to a neckline b/f a weak move back up forming a right shoulder. TBD whether this prospective H&S pattern confirms or not.
NOTE (13MAR14): TL's speak for themselves...big down today and closed back inside the rising channel.
NOTE: (19MAR14): Today FOMC met/spoke and mkt had another distro day, even though not down much, it was a wide bar (up/down height) which isn't bullish. So, looks like an imminent fall as most patterns have broken down or are in process....very, very, very few good charts out there to go long, IMO. Am expecting hard crash in next day or two as we've formed a well-defined head and just waiting for the hammer to fall anytime now...plus, broken uptrend line from FEB5 bottom.
NOTE (28MAR14): After having broken through trendline on 25MAR, NAZ sprung back to hug it today (much like a magnet)...looks now to be moving away from it (i.e. down).....next target likely 3968ish area to form neckline b/f move up to form right shoulder....TBD
Note (Feb 22, 2014): Ok folks, think I figured it out...will publish in a separate chart, but the above title "NAZ TOP ON JAN 22, 2014???" was off by 1 month...am now thinking the primary top in this bull happened yesterday Feb 21, 2014 (yesterday) and that the Jan 22, 2014 "top" was the left shoulder of a H&S pattern. However, above chart was pretty close and it really respected the trendlines, as you see it bounced off them 3 times thus far...more to follow on next chart. That said, anything can (and prob. will) happen!
Note (Feb 25, 2014): Price still respecting trendlines very well. Also, the possible "Head" of the H&S is gaining a rounding-appearance which sometimes precedes a fall...if it does, would expect to fall to 3968 area b/f moving back up to form right shoulder....TBD, of course.
Note (Feb 26, 2014): As of 1PM EST, NASX has pushed above the upper channel trendline...might be a very good place to go short....low risk, high reward, IMO. Close will be interesting...or if we get a head-fake pop up tomorrow b/f push down. TBD.
Note (Feb 28, 2014): NAZ put in another new high today and then gave back much of it in high volume...definitely a distribution day and likely the top of the head. Action next week will show if just a retreat or something more serious.....I think more serious as this was likely top of Head in Head & Shoulders pattern....but we'll have to watch price/vol to confirm anything. This mkt has been led by Biotech sector....but they took it on the chin today...
Note: (Mar 6, 2014): ANOTHER new high for NAZ & S&P...a bit frustrating but as the saying goes, tops are a process vice an event (like a bottom is)! But, I will say it's really respecting the trendline above...doesn't go much above it and you can see some distro days on those: 2/19, 2/21 and 2/28...think this is carving out a very well-defined Head in a possible H&S pattern...just need the breakdown now to the 3965 area (vic. low of 2/5) to start forming the neckline....TBD! All the indices have well-defined Heads now except for the Dow...so not 100% sure about that....FWIW, am neither a bull/bear...rather, think risk/reward currently favors the bears.
NOTE (9MAR14): Ok, NAZ closed poorly on Friday 7MAR w/another distribution day and LOOKS as if it put in top of head, but as previous comments attest, that's arbitrary. Still, we've got a nicely formed Left Shoulder, a forming Head---possibly the top of the head on 7MAR--and then let's watch/see whether we decline from this prospective head and down to a neckline b/f a weak move back up forming a right shoulder. TBD whether this prospective H&S pattern confirms or not.
NOTE (13MAR14): TL's speak for themselves...big down today and closed back inside the rising channel.
NOTE: (19MAR14): Today FOMC met/spoke and mkt had another distro day, even though not down much, it was a wide bar (up/down height) which isn't bullish. So, looks like an imminent fall as most patterns have broken down or are in process....very, very, very few good charts out there to go long, IMO. Am expecting hard crash in next day or two as we've formed a well-defined head and just waiting for the hammer to fall anytime now...plus, broken uptrend line from FEB5 bottom.
NOTE (28MAR14): After having broken through trendline on 25MAR, NAZ sprung back to hug it today (much like a magnet)...looks now to be moving away from it (i.e. down).....next target likely 3968ish area to form neckline b/f move up to form right shoulder....TBD