and at some point fundamentals will rule the day. If oil does spike, tax on economy, and bothered by earnings , some big guns missing a but many had forward guidance down, and if the market bakes in 6 months ahead, that can't be good for bulls. And then there is the WFM chart. It bounced, but if it goes south of 50, there's no floor beneath that. Now that is an interesting chart for sure. I always have WFM on my radar, not to play, but what it says.
Yes, but I agree with your most recent qqq chart. See, I think the pattern of higher highs has been breached. And if you overlay QQQ with XLF I think the Bull in XLF is exhausted, it cannot sustain the taper, no matter how euphoric investors feel. I shorted OCN before it started down, and did well. The banks have sold their mortgage servicing, and a friend who is a banker told me banks are done lending real estate money, and servicing it. OCN's sins of the past have not been reckoned with yet, and Wells Fargo just dumped a huge vault of their mortgages to service, and they can't handle it. XLF may be that leader down, and if financials go down, the rest will follow, even IWM.
My theory is different. We've rallied before (early 2011) for a good while without banks and we can do it again. Other sectors will take the slack - perhaps ags (weather related) and OIH (climbing oil prices). Let's not forget the insane biotechs and the XLU. None of these bode well for the economy. But they can lift the market.
I agree. His sidebars were interesting... individual investor finally getting back in, margin accounts at record levels, his favorite sectors loosing momentum, he is a bull, but he is taking out insurance now. Also the chart on TZA is interesting channel trending up from an all time low. Wondering your chartology thoughts on IWM.