Ok, so here we go again. Been perplexed w/recent odd volume, breakouts and breakdowns and previously posted chart here (www.tradingview.com/v/9tbS4IMO/) ref. speculation on the NAZ primary top. Just couldn't figure out if it was a broadening top (megaphone-shaped pattern----still very valid for NAZ, actually) or something else.....and yet, still see/have seen many stocks breaking out (solars, alt. energy, biotechs, etc.) and yet others topping (retail, AMZN, etc...)....so was confused by conflicting signals.
Well, here's a new and more promising (?) hypothesis...that the NAZ topped on Feb 21, 2014 (i.e. yesterday) and put in the top (or very, very, very close to the top) of the Head of a Head & Shoulders topping formation. The left shoulder top would be on 21JAN14, the head on 22FEB14 (or thereabouts) and right shoulder still to go---am speculating a late March-ish time-frame based on the symmetry of the pattern, but that's TBD...just as if this possible H&S even validates. Yet, I've a bit more confidence in this also b/c of trendlines confirming (too much to get into here---see prev. NASX chart posted---link above), many H&S formations on mkt sectors (pharmaceuticals, retail, etc.), inverse H&S on bonds and TVIX/UVXY forming what looks to be a double-bottom, etc. Again, the Head of the H&S is still forming, so is possible we could even get a few more up days---would make the head stand out a bit more---but if we do I doubt it's very significant on the upside....plus, yesterday's reversal adds a nice "crown" to be the "top" of the head, so am guessing it is. So, take a look and any feedback welcome!
One addendum: if indeed the H&S does confirm, this wouldn't necessarily be the end of the bull run...could be a 10% correction or so.....either way, we're long overdue!
Well, here's a new and more promising (?) hypothesis...that the NAZ topped on Feb 21, 2014 (i.e. yesterday) and put in the top (or very, very, very close to the top) of the Head of a Head & Shoulders topping formation. The left shoulder top would be on 21JAN14, the head on 22FEB14 (or thereabouts) and right shoulder still to go---am speculating a late March-ish time-frame based on the symmetry of the pattern, but that's TBD...just as if this possible H&S even validates. Yet, I've a bit more confidence in this also b/c of trendlines confirming (too much to get into here---see prev. NASX chart posted---link above), many H&S formations on mkt sectors (pharmaceuticals, retail, etc.), inverse H&S on bonds and TVIX/UVXY forming what looks to be a double-bottom, etc. Again, the Head of the H&S is still forming, so is possible we could even get a few more up days---would make the head stand out a bit more---but if we do I doubt it's very significant on the upside....plus, yesterday's reversal adds a nice "crown" to be the "top" of the head, so am guessing it is. So, take a look and any feedback welcome!
One addendum: if indeed the H&S does confirm, this wouldn't necessarily be the end of the bull run...could be a 10% correction or so.....either way, we're long overdue!