LastBattle
Long

Opportunity in the blood

NYSE:NBG   NATIONAL BK GREECE S A
318 8 5
As of now technicals are confirming a potential ab=cd that could be formed in NBG             over the next few days if the bottom support range of 1~1.23 held providing an excellent 3.88 risk reward.

Some upcoming catalyst:
-Greece reform plans ( April             8~9)
-NBG quarterly earnings . 4/2/2015?

I think it is quite unlikely that Greece will be leaving Eurozone (yet).
Even if that does happen, I expect short term decline in NBG             with a even larger potential chance of recovery in the future. This is a level that I'll accumulate more positions for 5 years or so.
Trade failed, nevertheless I will keep looking out for NBG.
It seems that the possibility of it going down to 0.4 is now much higher if $1 cracks.

+1 Reply
LastBattle LastBattle
snapshot
+1 Reply
Update..

ECB said to raise ELA ceiling for Greek banks by EUR 70M - Bloomberg (GREK) http://www.streetinsider.com/ETFs/ECB%2Bsaid%2Bto%2Braise%2BELA%2Bceiling%2Bfor%2BGreek%2Bbanks%2Bby%2BEUR%2B70M%2B-%2BBloomberg%2B%2528GREK%2529/10423655.html
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2407206-greece-presents-more-detailed-bailout-plan http://seekingalpha.com/news/2407206-greece-presents-more-detailed-bailout-plan

1.37 premarket earlier, let's see what happens next.


Also, stops could be moved to 1.08. This will be invalidated if we get below the previous lows made a month ago.
snapshot

+1 Reply
so far so good :D
Reply
think greece leaving euro if that happens *could* be positive catalyst toying around with that idea in my mind
+1 Reply
LastBattle SPYderCrusher
Yeah, there's no way they can fix their economy being in Eurozone.
In other countries like Japan, it can be done via momentary policy such as QE.

If it really leave euro, maybe some minor sell off in Greece equities and its a big bull rally :)
+1 Reply
agree.

I mean that could be like Euro +5% day or something ridic. Just think how, if everyone knows its the problem, would a longterm solution (Greece leaving) be viewed as negative? So such a binary event I suppose could be flat out wrong and it goes down more, but seems like the type of thing the market would reward.
+1 Reply
LastBattle SPYderCrusher
It'll be interesting to see what kind of short squeeze we'll see on Euro :D
Something much bigger than the Swiss Franc? xD
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