QuantitativeExhaustion
Long

Get Your Lottery Tickets Ready For A Powerball Winner

NYSE:NBG   NATIONAL BK GREECE S A
4130 73 50
We've been actively charting NBG             National Bank of Greece on the msg boards here at TradingView. The chart was first mentioned by Fire Fly. The historical chart show huge swings in price. Lots of money to be made for those playing options on this stock .

Chart: The Fous Revival Pattern is typical of many stocks that have been kicked to the curb and left for dead. I marked possible date of breakout using the Fibonacci Timing Tool. These confluence lines are what you see when you use Dynamic Trader Software in the indicator box. The more confluence lines you have with symetrical tops and bottoms, (high-to-high, low-to-low) the higher probability we see a pivot price move. Our next Fibonacci Timing Cluster is Oct             . 29 - Nov. 1

Strategy: All you need is a few dollars and an option account. Long Option is the play. Looking for Dec-Feb Expiration Deep-Out-Of-The-Money plays. $5.50 Dec. (when they come available), $6.00 Jan., $7 Feb.

Recent Developments...

>>>> Greece's biggest lenders, National Bank of Greece and Piraeus plan to put their troubled loans into separate "bad banks" in order to restore consumers' confidence in the rest of their business, the banks' executives told Reuters.

The volume of assets to be transferred over has not yet been set. "We're in the design phase," he said, adding that the bad bank should be operationally separate by the end of 2013.
NBG             may also use the bad bank structure to offload some of its bad loan exposure by finding an investor to take a minority stake in a subsidiary that will hold some of the loans.
"We've signed the NDAs (non disclosure agreements), they've seen the portfolios and they will put a price on them," said Christodoulou. "These are a number of financial funds that are trying to make a quick buck so we may or may not agree in the end."
Piraeus deputy chief executive Anthimos Thomopoulos said his bank, where impairments are running at 33 percent, was looking at ways to ring-fence bad loans from healthy ones and hoped to have its new organization in place by the first quarter of 2014.
"The market requires clarity" about the returns of performing and non-performing loans, he said, adding it made sense to split the bank now because "the situation is stabilizing, we're nearing the end of the asset cycle", a reference to the fact that interest in non-performing loans is beginning to taper off as Greece anticipates a return to economic growth in 2014.

>>>> US-Israeli fund to acquire stake in NBG             subsidiary firm Pangaia

National Bank of Greece is just a step away from announcing a strategic agreement with a major US-Israeli fund that could reach as much as 1 billion euros.
Kathimerini understands that the deal between the two sides has been completed and submitted to the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund HFSF, the European Commission and other institutional authorities for approval before it is officially announced.

The formal announcement is expected in the next few days, with the deal providing for the transfer of more than 50 percent of National’s property management subsidiary, Pangaia, to the US-Israeli fund, though the Greek lender will retain the management and control of the company. This comes as Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and several key ministers are in Israel promoting political and economic relations between the two countries.
Once completed, the agreement will constitute a major foreign investment and signify a vote of confidence not only in National but also in the local economy and the country’s prospects. With this transaction NBG             will decisively bolster its capital base, while keeping Pangaia in its group as it will retain its control.
baykar01
3 years ago
Did you take all of the reserve splits in to consideration? Most recent one in May.
+1 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO baykar01
3 years ago
Reverse Splits shouldn't scare you away. Just ask the former holders of PriceLines.com, which went through a reverse split after the tech bubble. PCLN went on to be the the best stock of the past 10 years.
+2 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO baykar01
3 years ago
snapshot
+2 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO baykar01
3 years ago
snapshot
+1 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO baykar01
3 years ago
If there going to take the bad debt off the books, NBG is in better shape than it was in May. So i don't think it's unreasonable to see $30 price.
+2 Reply
sublimares2
3 years ago
Great chart and research
+2 Reply
pantheo PRO
3 years ago
Hey Jr,

I'm long too since 3,30 before the squeeze break, but as you can see in the chart there is some resistance ahead. Too fast broke out of BB 3SD also. Of course the sky is the limit, once the deals you are referring too close. Bear in mind that international voices (Soros, Laguarde) calling for a new debt restructure, putting Merkel in difficult position. If debt restructure done, it will be the ultimate entry point, as the desirable pullback/crash comes. Also according to fresh WSJ article, IFM and troika are heading for a bang. Vultures fighting over the corpse... Both links attached.

snapshot


http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304500404579127521104414230
+1 Reply
I read your article. I don't think the IMF desire to leave European problems to ECB is such a bad thing. It would seem this is positive news. IMF is ready to allow ECB to walk on it's own. The bigger news is NGB taking the bad debt off the books first quarter 2014. AND they found a buyer already!
+1 Reply
dreambig pantheo
3 years ago
thnx for the article, tho it made no sense as to why nbg should rise. I have Nov 6 calls x 5 contracts, mainly cos the open interest keep rising, it now 16,294 from 12,481. I dont understand the crisis but something positive is brewing for nbg b/w now and jan
+1 Reply
Proxy
3 years ago
Nice title!
+1 Reply
Maybe should have been ...Ready for a Powerball Winner? Get Your Lottery Ticket Ready
+2 Reply
Proxy QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Haha! It looks like I should get a few tickets before the end of this month. This holiday season could be huge! Good stuff!
+1 Reply
We got JCP, ZNGA, NBG. If this debt ceiling is only pushed out 6 weeks, I would hold off and buy closer to the deadline date.
+1 Reply
aneisharora
3 years ago
trying to pick up Feb $7 calls.. for a dirt cheap $0.05.. don't think it's gonna happen!
+1 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO aneisharora
3 years ago
I think your a bit too early, but the news posted in the text image captions is big news. If we see NBG get active buyers of it's bad debt, NBG will zoom past $6
+1 Reply
nmike MOD
3 years ago
near term upside target
snapshot
+2 Reply
That's reasonable. nice chart work @nmike
+1 Reply
tradeseek
3 years ago
Nice chart. Why would you wait until we're closer to the debt ceiling deadline? Jan 2014 $7 calls are 4 cents. These could probably double. What do you think?
+1 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO tradeseek
3 years ago
Actually, I'm thinking Congress is going to pass a 6 week extension to the debt ceiling deadline. The market won't go up significantly until this debt limit is passed. That brings us to second to third week of November before we can start seeing a big rally in the markets. Specualation with options you have to get the timing very close. You mentioned Jan 2014 calls for 4 cents. How about getting Feb. 2014 $7 strikes for the same price? Speculation is not just focusing on the specific stock, but also the overall market behavior as well.
+1 Reply
snapshot


I'm going to start making a list of stocks that have the potential of breakout for monster gains.

STSI is one I've following closely. STSI makes the very popular e-Cigs product. Look everywhere and you'll see teens and young adults attempting to look cool with there water vapor cigs. STSI did get into some trouble this spring and summer when they were caught bribing government officials for govt contracts. The impact of the negative news took the stock down to 1.20 a share from $8-9 a share. The company is making much more than they did when the stock was at $8 and the negative news has passed. Market investors/traders often say you wait 6 months after a crisis hits before you start buying a stock. For STSI that's about now. I'm again going to wait to buy May 3.00/3.50's until around mid November. This is when Congress/Senate move pass the debt limit issue.
+2 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Sorry should say $5-6 not $8-9
+2 Reply
tradeseek QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Yeah this stock does seem like it has potential. Appreciate your input by the way.
+1 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO tradeseek
3 years ago
Don't like the fact it brokeout higher today. Need it to settle down back in the wedge.
+2 Reply
WilliamStephens QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
It's settling nicely these days, thoughts?
+2 Reply
pantheo PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
A small contribution to your list. Spectacular paranormal activity last week.

snapshot
+1 Reply
Is that optionable?
+1 Reply
pantheo PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Finviz screener says no.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=VISN&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&b=1
+1 Reply
Ok... looking for option plays, that does look good for a stock play though.
+2 Reply
alex.a
3 years ago
I am a newbie. Please bear with my under-knowledged question, though - My question is why not buying stock of NBG instead of option? What are the differences buying stocks of NBG and calling put of NBG? Thanks for your sincere answer in advance, sir -
+1 Reply
Here is one I've been watching.. UUP is the play off the dollar. This is a historical chart of Dollar vs Gold.

UUP options are dirt cheap (low implied volatility) and if the US Dollar blows up, UUP options will make you a huge return.
+1 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
snapshot
+2 Reply
aneisharora QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
did you buy the options yet?
+1 Reply
bmartiny QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
What a great way to take advantage of the options market. I am going to have to keep this one on my radar. Some longer term calls that give some time for QE taper to kick in might just be the way to go.
+1 Reply
traderblast
3 years ago
As a rule we only buy deep in the $$ options-on this we bought both-please note the Jan '15 2 strike sells for exactly the same as the Jan '16 and you get another year-we bought all Jan '16 options-thank you for the great chart.
+1 Reply
osci
3 years ago
JR could not find any news about the deal with the US-Israeli fund. Is this possibilty still in play?
+2 Reply
alex.a
3 years ago
Greek debt swells to 169.1% of its GDP in 2Q. Nearing PRE-PSI levels.
+1 Reply
alex.a
3 years ago
Greek 2Q Govl. deficit widens to 16.6% of GDP, EUROstat says.
+1 Reply
Algokid PRO
3 years ago
JR , you are the man. I got in @ 5.14 , won't disclose how much i put in, but I'm very very happy this morning. :)
+3 Reply
Nice... that was quick.
+3 Reply
alex.a
3 years ago
I'm in @ 6.36. But, my account didn't allow option. So, just stock -
+2 Reply
vinn
3 years ago
Is this still a valid play ? dropped %7 today, but still going according to your predictions
+1 Reply
alex.a vinn
3 years ago
I think so because according to plan, it was supposed to reach the 1st target Nov. right? Early Reach the Goal got penalty??? It cannot go wrong. Greece must go back to where it was but with better system.
+2 Reply
alex.a vinn
3 years ago
I got stock not option, though ~ Perhaps today is the day for buying???
+2 Reply
Pattern still valid. I think we get a mild bearish market world wide in the near term. Might last two to three weeks and that will be a great buying opp for these short squeezers where you can make $50k+ on very little capital investments.
+2 Reply
vinn QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
I have like ~90 Jan 14 calls @ 7, ~10 itm calls. I feel like it is enough. I may get some jcp.
+1 Reply
alex.a
3 years ago
Perhaps, pre-maturely reach the 1st target so it bounced back to lower ???
+1 Reply
Meos Capital
3 years ago
My two cents, which should hold for any trade: Don't get greedy on this one. I bought the Feb'14 5.00 calls and watched it jump 85% over the past few days...only to see it quickly evaporate in this morning's sell-off. When you're up, take your money or set tighter stops.
+1 Reply
alex.a Meos Capital
3 years ago
@Meos If you have a moment, would you mind if I ask some information how to buy options or where would be the best to get the info? I am using interactive brokerage.
+1 Reply
vinn alex.a
3 years ago
optionhouse seems to be the best in terms of commision.
+1 Reply
alex.a vinn
3 years ago
Cool ~ Thanks -
+1 Reply
alex.a vinn
3 years ago
vinn - at optionhouse, there is referer event. if I give your name, you will get $150 or 30 free trade.
+1 Reply
alex.a alex.a
3 years ago
If you want, let me know. I will. Thanks for your information. That's nothing.
+1 Reply
snapshot

Another lottery play
+2 Reply
RadioShack another stock I'm watching

snapshot
Reply
vinn
3 years ago
where is the break already? I feel like jan 14 options will expire and I will have to buy some more. :(
+1 Reply
This one is building up like a pressure cooker
+2 Reply
GiridharTammana QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Hi, I'm new to tradeview, if I want to enter now what would be the best entry point. Regards
+1 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO GiridharTammana
2 years ago
Did not see this post. Below I posted an updated chart of how I think NBG will play out.
+2 Reply
syungmao
2 years ago
This thing just keeps going sideways like no other.
+1 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO syungmao
2 years ago
Yeah you have to keep track of support lines.. When they break you make the move. In this case we had an ascending line support break. Still think the breakout happens, just at a latter date and from a lower starting point.
+2 Reply
VolHunter
2 years ago
Still in play?
Reply
timwest PRO
2 years ago
Hello JR - Just going through your charts today and thought I'd ask about this one. Maybe setting up still?
+1 Reply
Hatmans
2 years ago
Big share dilution killed this trade
Reply
NBG diluted it's stock to a point of no return.
Reply
Possible it heads back to prior support 2.85 ish
+1 Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out