Multiple Signals, which way for Nat Gas

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
98 1 3
Depicted in the chart are 5 scenarios that I'm expecting price to take in the next few weeks, my summary is below:

1.) Price may hit the lower trendline and bounce within the triangle support pattern that was created.
2.) If 1.) is obeyed then I expect a further break to the low made in December. If temperatures begin to warm in the US (keep your eye on the weather forecasts for the states, e.g. outlook)
3.) Price may break the lower trendline and then consolidate in the upper trendline , which has been providing more resistance than the lower trendline
4.) If 3.) Occurs and as stated in 2.) temperatures warm in the states I expect another low to be made
5.) Ideally this is the trade I would like to take up to the the three resistance lines or to the 3.0 level. There must be an under supply of gas combined with a cold snap in the US for this to occur

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I like 1 and 2, personally. 5 is a long shot fundamentally, in my opinion, but I could easily be wrong.
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