BEI
Short

NIKKEI / SPY analysis

INDEX:NKY   Nikkei 225 Index
224 3 0
Since Nikkei 225             has 0.94 correlation with SPY             i found the analysis interesting in order to get more insight on next plays on S&P 500             .

Without any doubt the Japanese index is consolidating since its may top this year. This will ultimately lead to 2 scenarios:

1- NIKKEI is in a descending triangle pattern formation, prices will test support of this triangle, following 157- ish             test on SPY             and the two indexes will bounce a last time before big correction September-October.

2- NIKKEI is in a simple consolidation in a bull pennant consolidation pattern, breaking above 14 402 with volume , prices go to 17 000 at least (fibonacci level)

I believe scenario #1 is more likely, the long term analysis (20 years) of the YEN Vs. NIKKEI has a clear negative correlation, and both are bouncing from their trending channel (see chart posted below). How much prices will correct is unknown             at the moment.
BEI
3 years ago
snapshot
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BEI
3 years ago
Falling wedge is indicating scenario #2, only to keep in observation for SPY correlation
snapshot
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BEI
3 years ago
this broke both triangle but did not break next resistance (green line) so did not confirm, down for now i guess
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