NIKKEI / SPY analysis

INDEX:NKY   Nikkei 225 Index
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Since Nikkei 225             has 0.94 correlation with SPY             i found the analysis interesting in order to get more insight on next plays on S&P 500             .

Without any doubt the Japanese index is consolidating since its may top this year. This will ultimately lead to 2 scenarios:

1- NIKKEI is in a descending triangle pattern formation, prices will test support of this triangle, following 157- ish             test on SPY             and the two indexes will bounce a last time before big correction September-October.

2- NIKKEI is in a simple consolidation in a bull pennant consolidation pattern, breaking above 14 402 with volume , prices go to 17 000 at least (fibonacci level)

I believe scenario #1 is more likely, the long term analysis (20 years) of the YEN Vs. NIKKEI has a clear negative correlation, and both are bouncing from their trending channel (see chart posted below). How much prices will correct is unknown at the moment.
this broke both triangle but did not break next resistance (green line) so did not confirm, down for now i guess
Falling wedge is indicating scenario #2, only to keep in observation for SPY correlation
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