NZDJPY Long Term Outlook & Levels

FX:NZDJPY   New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen
250 3 11
THE BIG PICTURE: First to note is the failure to surpass point A which has major implications the longer price stays below that level. The aggressive move from A to B took a matter of about a year and a half. With that model to copy, the move from point C looks to terminate sometime in late 2016. Take the fib extension tool to measure point A to B and project the move from point C to estimate the price target for point D just above the 44 level. Another observation is to measure the retracements that created segment B to C and they average out to be in the neighborhood of ten percent. A retracement that is twenty percent greater than the average of the retracements will help trigger a short trade just below the 80 level.

THE TECHNICAL STANDPOINT: With a limited data set it important to keep in mind that a retracement larger than the average of the previous retracements shows an overbalance of price and time. So far the high at point C is providing a level that can be used to manage risk. The inability of price to move above that level will add to the bearish bias and reinforce the need for more selling. Consider a move beneath 80 before triggering the long term short.
WOW, I thought I was bearish on most YEN pairs but this is either very optimistic or bold. But agree with general gist of your analysis,. Thanks for sharing.
The objective is to stay objective. Thank you for the comment
DanV Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe
I agree. I think a significant decline in most YEN pairs are in store that would last several months f not more. That long term price history and structure suggest that it might hold above those lows.
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