FX:NZDJPY   New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen
KIWI/JPY is an leading index for global indexes by its risk on property. As we can see, the situation is on the edge now. Because JPY has no more easing as BOJ promised and 520 is a very risky day. The weighted JPY is recovering its purchase value soon. All pairs will be reset. Watch out!
Comment: We're seeing some exhausting bounces these days. New report from US market told us that big hedge fund managers had cut their share holdings in first season and they had chosen to defend. As we know 520 and 623 are both very very risky days.
Even if SPX500 and GER30 go to new highs doesn't change my risk off choice. I don't invest anything but holding my money until weighted JPY reaches its purchase power value which means I'm holding a lot of JPY currency for safe haven until some HUGE risks happen. They will happen, soon...
Market is a mountains.
Comment: Today, I want to talk to you guys about USD/JPY.
Even if DXY huge rising doesn't mean UJ is an up trending. As we know, we have a pair which USD is dividend by JPY. Infact, there are four directions in this pair and all that matters is the speed of the JPY's changing.
If you guys think about it then you will realize how deep EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY will drop.
Think it, again.
Comment: Let's do a simple maths.
1, If DXY goes to new highs with USD rising rates, then we could reach target 0.5= NZD/USD.
2, If weighted JPY recovers its purchase power, then we could get target 96= USD/JPY.
3, ( NZD/USD) * ( USD/JPY) = NZD/JPY target 48.
4, Do your maths where we could get target EUR/JPY.
Comment: It's very interesting to observe the argument between USD and JPY. US treasuery and BOJ have already given me the answer of weighted JPY's future. It's fun.^^
Comment: I think it is beginning that weighted JPY is recovering purchase power. Japan has delayed consuming tax until Oct. 2019. That means there's no more devaluation this year. RISK ON should happen like 2008- 2009. From fundamental analysis, BOJ needs an healthy trade balance incomes this year. Because BOJ has too much debts already. The debts have reached their limits. They have 2 choices, tax and recovering purchase power.
Comment: It is beginning.
Comment: Shall we begin? now?
Comment: 60 is an healthy target for weighted JPY power.
Comment: Watch out! BOJ rised long term rates called 10 years bond yield curve control and Kiwi could fall with cutting rates. This colud be a early sign of big pullback from global indexes as the same risk on property.
Comment: Collapsing......
Comment: With BOJ raised longterm rates and RBNZ will cut more rates. No one will believe BOJ raised rates but "Truth is boring " Denis.Y.Y. Right?
Comment: Pains could be lasting very very long time if the VIX is being manipulated. Especially for the weighted JPY, the more quickly as it recovers purchase power the less lasting pains. Just like using a broken knife for kill the pig. it's going to be bloodily and it's a torture.
Comment: Human being became more stupid than I expected because we are afraid of small quickly pains or I called it "a spoiled generation".
Comment: I will open a new chart to update this pair because of FXCM data was sabotaged.
Comment: FXCM data was fixed. GDT auction price is lower today. GDT price is a key for Newzealand GDP, lower price, lower GDP. We can expect short time weakenning from kiwi.
Comment: Today we have confirmed that Renminbi will be tighten in 2017 and should rise rates in the next year.
Comment: This will cause weighted JPY rises rates too. Like last hike the market has no surprising as boring like this.
I can't update weighted JPY because it's confidential now.
Comment: Be careful guys, something is coming...... just a feeling and a guess.
NZDJPY is a risk/safe pair which is leading the global indexes. From monthly chart this pair is very early sign of the stocks markets crashing. The Kiwi is collapsing from GDT auction price and New Zealand GDP dropping, let's wait and see the YEN's weakness will save it or not. This time, BOJ could do nothing under Trump's shadow.
The food and the oil inflations correlated and DXY correlated too.
Comment: From the March 2017 food inflation reached its highest level to the June. The GDT auction is forming a double top, this could be the first sign of Kiwi's weakness is coming. Meanwhile the core inflation should become the FRB's inflation already but the metals are still digging down, there will be 2 years very low core inflation controlled period. Maybe that's why Goldman Sachs is quitting the commodities market soon.
NZDJPY is an leading index of risk on, the Kiwi's weakening doesn't mean the weighted JPY can't help NZDJPY.
Comment: This could be worse guys.
Comment: But the correlation has been changed after the Brexit.
Comment: Finally, watch out the channel bottom. The Kiwi may have given up...
This Risk/Safe pair is leading the way of the indexes.
Comment: GDT dairy auction resulted in -2.4% down than last one in September, the Kiwi is dropping now.
As I always told you guys in this publishing, Kiwi/Yen is an important risk/safe pair which is leading the way for global stock markets. If we have a black swan situation on Oct. which the Japan election result may shock the market like Brexit, with the dairy food inflation crashing and the GDP of New Zealand slipping, this pair is gonna crash...
The New Zealand inflation is still too low to fulfill the RBNZ's target because of the Kiwi followed the US dollar in the QE period or saying it's too strong comparing with the Oz...
Comment: Source: (chose your sectors wisely if you are still in the stock markets)
The after Brexit risk on saved the channel lower edge, then the Trump election, then now what? I will watch this pair very closely.
Comment: I've seen a negative correlation from June 2016 or saying the Brexit. Strange but worth to mention here, now if the weighted Yen rises, NJ down, the SPX500 looks like gonna go up...
This may be an first evidence of interests, inflations, stocks are gonna rise all together. A positive cycle should have begun in 2017.
Even if weighted Yen rising may help stocks doesn't mean Yen pair can't go down for a deep correction.
Comment: Is this gonna happen?
Comment: Finally... after the NJ dropping problem has been solved by Brexit the correlation is all good for the Yen's rising. The interests, inflation, indexes, Yen, a positive cycle has begun.
The western single market (SPX500, DAX30, FTSE100) shall rise with the interests. The China A shares market will drop in a condition interests at low, stupid as predicted before. The EEM market should be better than China, like 2010.
Comment: The Kiwi should do hikes to be against this higher. Looks like Yen is gonna output inflations.
Comment: Comparing with the GDT price wave pattern, consider that cross pairs are turning into where central banks are using core inflations, with Yen's weakness will do harm to the western stock markets (watch out the chart published on 9th. Oct).
I'm not sure if Yellen's old team operators will tell the truth to a new team of the FRB. Central banks usually make markets collapsing during food inflation changing into the core one before they realize what is happening... Yes, I'm telling your guys they're more stupid than you can imagine...
Comment: Yen's moving is well, all good.
Comment: Bearish below 80, very big one.
Comment: Very bear, following with China stocks markets. Something in the New Zealand is happening looks like the culture influences from China is winning the western culture.
But in the Australia, with recently Chinese students have been attacked by local people, the culture conflicts are undecided. (We don't trade this FYI)
From the Oz. and the Kiwi will have divergent money policies point of view. A culture movement in Australia may have a future of western people. Oz. may balance the Yen's moving.
Comment: The FRB mentioned food/oil inflation and the real inflation, as predicted before. Hope you guys are doing well.
Comment: GDT auction toady -3.5%, RBNZ may has to do something tomorrow...the food inflation will drop meanwhile the oil inflation looks like going higher.
Comment: OMG, Abysmal diving ... hope you’ve set a stop loss. The food/drink inflation is just topped, there’s a long way to go down from the top. Who are you with now, food or the miner?
Comment: Like been predicted before, GDT auction today -3.4%, food inflation is done and it’s just beginning. Central banks have to use the core one soon, after the squeezing of course. Please Remember, in history chart they have usually caused market crashing during the switching. We’re looking for GER30 crashing soon but SPX500 may flat.
Comment: Will it rise by Yen weakness and causes Ger30 crashing by a negative correlation? Watching it closely...
Comment: DAX crashing with carry trades rising? Squeezing happens in months...
Comment: Merry Christmas and happy new year!
We wish investors have good luck!
Comment: Be careful here, RBNZ may hike soon, it results Kiwi devaluation...
Comment: A little too strong in Kiwi, need put it down.
Comment: We would like to see the food inflation put down but the Kiwi has a little out of control... the Kiwi is rising at any condition, no matter US dollar or JPY rising or dropping, it has lost control among those pairs in the forex market.
1, RBNZ hike to put it down, but for now, they're looking at China, wrongly.
2, Rumors about contaminated dairy, they did it many years ago...
Comment: We’ve seen an huge Renminbi food (mostly pork has been cut by 50%) inflation dropping in China, good for all poor people in China. But we are still seeing Kiwi’s diary price holding high for now. How long it can last?
Bear, very bear.
Traders need to watch stock market sectors carefully, some stocks will follow the food inflation soon...
Comment: The GDT auction today is being watched carefully for food and dairy inflation future. The triangle in dairy price should chose a direction to break out soon. Dairy farmers hedging time.
We've seen food inflation dropped by 50% in China. The market will fight this out.
Comment: We want to say something to Chinese traders here:
The futures market is designed for hedging to protect assets like agriculture, oil, etc, high lost risk products.
The futures market is NOT for speculative purpose, small traders are only participants.
Comment: Food inflation like Kiwi should be weak. ( New Zealand GDP sensitive) Without the support from monetary policy, people around the world are now getting poorer. Sooner or later, they can't afford to buy expensive food and dairy any more... We don't think RBNZ is ready for this, they're watching China, by wrongly using the same money policy as Renminbi. ( New Zealand core inflation is too low)
Recently we've seen a lot of food price reduction in China. We've predicted that China's dairy stocks will fall sharply in the near future...
We've given the hedge strategy, as usual.
Comment: The NZDUSD should pull back to trend line 0.7000, not sure why, but it's possible. Only if DAX crashing could lead to NZDJPY rising from negative correlation point of view. The Kiwi core inflation is too low, NZD has been over valued from negative interests (the negative interests was over on Feb. 2018 in China), this is unhealthy. The RBNZ isn't ready for the food inflation failure, yet.
Comment: The RBNZ has shown their satisfaction for the Kiwi weakness today. Also they're facing the competition where is from Oz. dollar, dairy products price from Australia has fallen by 50%. Sooner or later, the GDT auction may collapse.
Be careful here, where those markets and prices have positive correlations with food, could crash simultaneously... ( Mao-tai top)
Shall we begin? now?
Balls deep short? Tp SL?
Thank you for your likes! USD/JPY is also in a downtrend.
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