FX:NZDJPY   New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen
KIWI/JPY is an leading index for global indexes by its risk on property. As we can see, the situation is on the edge now. Because JPY has no more easing as BOJ promised and 520 is a very risky day. The weighted JPY is recovering its purchase value soon. All pairs will be reset. Watch out!
Comment: We're seeing some exhausting bounces these days. New report from US market told us that big hedge fund managers had cut their share holdings in first season and they had chosen to defend. As we know 520 and 623 are both very very risky days.
Even if SPX500 and GER30 go to new highs doesn't change my risk off choice. I don't invest anything but holding my money until weighted JPY reaches its purchase power value which means I'm holding a lot of JPY currency for safe haven until some HUGE risks happen. They will happen, soon...
Market is a mountains.
Comment: Today, I want to talk to you guys about USD/JPY.
Even if DXY huge rising doesn't mean UJ is an up trending. As we know, we have a pair which USD is dividend by JPY. Infact, there are four directions in this pair and all that matters is the speed of the JPY's changing.
If you guys think about it then you will realize how deep EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY will drop.
Think it, again.
Comment: Let's do a simple maths.
1, If DXY goes to new highs with USD rising rates, then we could reach target 0.5= NZD/USD.
2, If weighted JPY recovers its purchase power, then we could get target 96= USD/JPY.
3, ( NZD/USD) * ( USD/JPY) = NZD/JPY target 48.
4, Do your maths where we could get target EUR/JPY.
Comment: It's very interesting to observe the argument between USD and JPY. US treasuery and BOJ have already given me the answer of weighted JPY's future. It's fun.^^
Comment: I think it is beginning that weighted JPY is recovering purchase power. Japan has delayed consuming tax until Oct. 2019. That means there's no more devaluation this year. RISK ON should happen like 2008- 2009. From fundamental analysis, BOJ needs an healthy trade balance incomes this year. Because BOJ has too much debts already. The debts have reached their limits. They have 2 choices, tax and recovering purchase power.
Comment: It is beginning.
Comment: Shall we begin? now?
Comment: 60 is an healthy target for weighted JPY power.
Comment: Watch out! BOJ rised long term rates called 10 years bond yield curve control and Kiwi could fall with cutting rates. This colud be a early sign of big pullback from global indexes as the same risk on property.
Comment: Collapsing......
Comment: With BOJ raised longterm rates and RBNZ will cut more rates. No one will believe BOJ raised rates but "Truth is boring " Denis.Y.Y. Right?
Comment: Pains could be lasting very very long time if the VIX is being manipulated. Especially for the weighted JPY, the more quickly as it recovers purchase power the less lasting pains. Just like using a broken knife for kill the pig. it's going to be bloodily and it's a torture.
Comment: Human being became more stupid than I expected because we are afraid of small quickly pains or I called it "a spoiled generation".
Comment: I will open a new chart to update this pair because of FXCM data was sabotaged.
Comment: FXCM data was fixed. GDT auction price is lower today. GDT price is a key for Newzealand GDP, lower price, lower GDP. We can expect short time weakenning from kiwi.
Comment: Today we have confirmed that Renminbi will be tighten in 2017 and should rise rates in the next year.
Comment: This will cause weighted JPY rises rates too. Like last hike the market has no surprising as boring like this.
I can't update weighted JPY because it's confidential now.
Comment: Be careful guys, something is coming...... just a feeling and a guess.
NZDJPY is a risk/safe pair which is leading the global indexes. From monthly chart this pair is very early sign of the stocks markets crashing. The Kiwi is collapsing from GDT auction price and New Zealand GDP dropping, let's wait and see the YEN's weakness will save it or not. This time, BOJ could do nothing under Trump's shadow.
The food and the oil inflations correlated and DXY correlated too.
Comment: From the March 2017 food inflation reached its highest level to the June. The GDT auction is forming a double top, this could be the first sign of Kiwi's weakness is coming. Meanwhile the core inflation should become the FRB's inflation already but the metals are still digging down, there will be 2 years very low core inflation controlled period. Maybe that's why Goldman Sachs is quitting the commodities market soon.
NZDJPY is an leading index of risk on, the Kiwi's weakening doesn't mean the weighted JPY can't help NZDJPY.
Comment: This could be worse guys.
Comment: But the correlation has been changed after the Brexit.
Comment: Finally, watch out the channel bottom. The Kiwi may have given up...
This Risk/Safe pair is leading the way of the indexes.
Shall we begin? now?
Balls deep short? Tp SL?
Thank you for your likes! USD/JPY is also in a downtrend.
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