I think NZDJPY could move lower.
Couple of shooting stars on the weekly charts seem to suggest that NZDJPY is struggling to move higher then these recent tops.
Looking at the chart risk sentiment is suggesting that we should be much lower but is currently being held up by rising global yields and inflation expectations (and a dovish BoJ). Oil is moving lower recently and could mean a move lower in yields - if this is the case it should pull cross JPY pairs lower with it. We can also see that the breakeven inflation expectations is lower as well on the chart.
Another thing that's interesting is the move lower in commodities and metals which has been fairly correlated to cross JPY - this could be because a rise in commodities has meant a weaker JPY and so i imagine lower commodities could mean a strong JPY.
i would go AUDJPY as it is a better proxy for risk sentiment but the AUD economy is performing well at the moment so i think NZDJPY may be better.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
Couple of shooting stars on the weekly charts seem to suggest that NZDJPY is struggling to move higher then these recent tops.
Looking at the chart risk sentiment is suggesting that we should be much lower but is currently being held up by rising global yields and inflation expectations (and a dovish BoJ). Oil is moving lower recently and could mean a move lower in yields - if this is the case it should pull cross JPY pairs lower with it. We can also see that the breakeven inflation expectations is lower as well on the chart.
Another thing that's interesting is the move lower in commodities and metals which has been fairly correlated to cross JPY - this could be because a rise in commodities has meant a weaker JPY and so i imagine lower commodities could mean a strong JPY.
i would go AUDJPY as it is a better proxy for risk sentiment but the AUD economy is performing well at the moment so i think NZDJPY may be better.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
Comment:
taking this out at breakeven here