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NZD/JPY technicals & trade setup

FX:NZDJPY   New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen
37 0 7
Breach of strong supports of 72.239 to bring in a more bearish environment, Use rallies for fresh shorts.

We don’t see any further spikes above 74.0446 (i.e. 21DMA).

The pair declined soon after the formation of long legged doji at 73.542 levels.

Price declines consistently below EMAs and more slumps likely as spinning top and doji appear with huge volumes.

It has now broken supports at 75.922 levels on a closing basis (yesterday's close at 75.026), you can observe the bearish price behaviour of this pair upon breach of these levels, it has cleared one more major support within a day at 75.052 levels.

RSI and Stochastic indicate that the selling momentum remains intact despite some minor spikes in between.

MACD on daily, signals new bearish environment is likely to establish as there is an attempt of bearish crossover is observed.

On the monthly chart, it has remained consistently well below 7 & 21EMAs.

MACD signals the bearish trend to prolong ahead.

Massive volumes on declining streak are in conformity to the strong downtrend.

RSI has been converging downwards below 40 levels, subsequently, stochastic curves have reached oversold territory but there are no signs of bullish crossover.

Hence, considering above technical indications we could foresee more dips and bears may even drag.

Trade tips: Bear put spread

Spot ref: 72.854, NZDJPY             1W IVs are at around 12.23% (while articulating).

We wouldn't be surprised if it shows interim spikes, bears likely to drag below 72 levels sooner or later, hence in order to tackle this swings we reckon debit put spreads are best suitable as the IVs and premiums are reasonable considering daily swings on technical charts.

So, here goes the strategy, Debit Put Spread = Go long 1M ATM -0.49 delta Put + Short 1W (1%) OTM Put with lower Strike Price with net delta should be at -0.40.

For a net debit bear put spread reduces the cost of trade by the premium collected (on the shorts of OTM put) and keeps option trader to participate in downward moves and any upswings in abrupt.

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