FX:NZDJPY   New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen
142 10
If I read it well and the up trend is still in force, the odds of reaching the targets are as marked on the chart (the source: my research). By the way, NZD looks to me like it was stretching its limbs first thing in the mornig after the wake-up - going to do something strong?
I hope you took the profit .
I think, this was it.
ForceFollower motleifaul
Honestly, I didn't. I'm still long (I was asleep). But I have given up on the second target and I'm looking to exit at the grey horizontal line (79.010). However, according to some theories, it should go up to 80.000 yen. That's because the price reversed at 50% APP (alternate price projection), which gives it some probability it should get to 100% APP (and it conincides with the sharp 80 level). It doesn't mean that I'm not stressed about it now though. :-)
motleifaul ForceFollower
Thank you for this explanation. You intruded very deep into theory. It sounds very esoteric to me that we now should assume a 100 % retracement. But it's interesting. I will watch ist with interest. What does APP mean?
ForceFollower motleifaul
APP (alternate price projection) draws on Robert C. Miner's terminology of projecting the size of the prior (alternate) swing high again after the retracement ("High Probability Trading Strategies'). That's my name for what in tradingview toolbox is called 'Trend-Based Fib Extension'. I did some research on it myself and I found that price goes to 38.2% APP 80% of the time and to 61.8% APP 60% of the time. The problem with it is just that you sometimes don't know, if it's actually intending to retrace or not (ie. conitinue the trend). :-) So I don't use this tool very often, but I know what its odds are.
As for the 50% APP, Paul Coghlan applies the method of expecting the 100% APP with high probability, if price respects the 50% APP. He draws on work of Charles Lindsay ('Trident: a Trading Strategy').
motleifaul ForceFollower
Thank you! One allways learns something new.
Congratulation! First target reached!
I couldn't take part unfortunately as I had to do other things and couldn't watch.
I'm still long, my stop has held, maybe not for long though. If still lucky, looking to take profit at the horizontal grey resistance (79.022). However, FOMC minutes messed it up a bit. And there are still a lot of aussie/kiwi and yen related news coming...
ForceFollower motleifaul
That's bad news to me... Can't argue with that.
I see the same. But I think that the probability of the 61.8 % retracement much less. Look at the daily picture!
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