If I read it well and the up trend is still in force, the odds of reaching the targets are as marked on the chart (the source: my research). By the way, NZD looks to me like it was stretching its limbs first thing in the mornig after the wake-up - going to do something strong?
Honestly, I didn't. I'm still long (I was asleep). But I have given up on the second target and I'm looking to exit at the grey horizontal line (79.010). However, according to some theories, it should go up to 80.000 yen. That's because the price reversed at 50% APP (alternate price projection), which gives it some probability it should get to 100% APP (and it conincides with the sharp 80 level). It doesn't mean that I'm not stressed about it now though. :-)
Thank you for this explanation. You intruded very deep into theory. It sounds very esoteric to me that we now should assume a 100 % retracement. But it's interesting. I will watch ist with interest. What does APP mean?
APP (alternate price projection) draws on Robert C. Miner's terminology of projecting the size of the prior (alternate) swing high again after the retracement ("High Probability Trading Strategies'). That's my name for what in tradingview toolbox is called 'Trend-Based Fib Extension'. I did some research on it myself and I found that price goes to 38.2% APP 80% of the time and to 61.8% APP 60% of the time. The problem with it is just that you sometimes don't know, if it's actually intending to retrace or not (ie. conitinue the trend). :-) So I don't use this tool very often, but I know what its odds are.
As for the 50% APP, Paul Coghlan applies the method of expecting the 100% APP with high probability, if price respects the 50% APP. He draws on work of Charles Lindsay ('Trident: a Trading Strategy').
I'm still long, my stop has held, maybe not for long though. If still lucky, looking to take profit at the horizontal grey resistance (79.022). However, FOMC minutes messed it up a bit. And there are still a lot of aussie/kiwi and yen related news coming...