4xForecaster
Short

Short @ 77958 On Wolfe | $NZD $USD #forex

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
1632 73 21
Friends,

Price rallied significantly against market expectation, but remained subdued to market geometry.

Dominant geometries here are Elliott Wave's Ending Diagonal ("ED") vs. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves ("WW") patterns, both forming at the tipping-end of a multi-month bearish swing.


INSTITUTIONAL BEARS

There are 3 major banks that have taken bearish positions against the pair versus none long. This institutional bearish weigh will offer the siphoning pull down the twirling drain, pulling price incrementally downward.

The targets pronounced by these banks range between 0.746 and 0.761, with one smacked right at 0.750.


PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING MODEL:

Model too signaled a bearish bias, defining the following BEARISH targets:

1 - TG-x - 0.74312 - 08 JAN 2015

followed in order by a probable rallying to BULLISH targets:

1 - TG-Hi - 0.78473 - 08 JAN 2015

and

2 - TG-x = 0.81332 - 08 JAN 2015


MARKET GEOMETIES:

Aside from the dominant ED and WW aforementioned above, a larger granular pattern in the form of Scott Carney's 5-0 Pattern remains probable. This is the pattern that has offered a near-alignment with model, defined above as "TG-x = 0.81332 - 08 JAN 2015".

The 5-0 Pattern reflects a 50% (i.e.: five - zero, or 5-0 ) retracement from completion of the Shark . If you squeezed the chart a little, the advanced pattern trader might decipher a Bullish Shark , which by definition might have defined its Point-C termination differently from the Model's 0.74312, but this is also why I do not use patterns for my trading. As background pattern, there are fine, though.


OVERALL:

Overall, I would consider the force of institutional winds, combined with the reliable Elliott Wave and Bill Wolfe patterning as leading indicators of lead vectors when forming a directional bias here.

A Point-5 should offer a conservative target against a more aggressive Point-5-prime at TG-x = 74312.

Look for persistent             Negative Divergences (not bearish!) in RSI , hammering price down at every occasion.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
13 APR 2015 - Update:

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$NZDUSD - Point-4 shifted per Geo Anchor; Predictive Model remains set on 0.78473:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $USD #RBNZ
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David, BACA 0.73729 would invalidate this forecast correct?
+1 Reply
Hello @iefan - I would simply use a faint cut/paste 1-3 Line off of Point-2 to maintain a visual on the parallel. If price falls further down than current Point-4, but remains off of the 1-3 parallel that originates from Point-2, then the geometry remains valid.

David
+1 Reply
03 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD completed forecast geo at point-4; Bullish targets per Rredictive Model waiting:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
25 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD moves as forecast; Breaks thru floor; 1-3 Line as next support; 0.73729 in force:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David. Not the best tunneling but is this a likely passage of price movement?
snapshot
+1 Reply
Hello @iefan - This is a great spot.

Now, always trust that mid-point geometry between points 2 and 3 to offer an anchor for that tunneling, rather than believing in what price "appears" to be saying at this moment.

What I mean here is that the spike at the mid-point between points 2 and 3 could very well become an anchor point, while current price could decline significantly from current level to rest at a yet higher-low point, thus defining point-4 at the resting top of that tunneling projection.

This may appear a bit convoluted in words, but feasible in simple geometric deeds.

At this point, I would simply draw both tunneling lines based on what you have, while still adding a projection using that geometric anchor point.

What you will be left with are two lines, one with a much leveled slope. If price temporarily turned to the downside before completion Point-5, I would expect it to rest on the least-steep slope of the two before rallying to complete the geometry - Not an absolute probability, but a scenario that would make sense were we to stand back in the future and look back at this and so many other gros that accomplished this weaving path.

David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Thank you very much David, did I chart it correctly?
snapshot
+1 Reply
@iefan - Yes, I also just posted a note on the internal completion and how it lends itself to a sustained bullish forecast based on pre-defined Model's targets. Adding your perceived larger geometry - which I also added into the recent chart - it all seems to come together nicely.

What I also added in the chart are the interim arrow (typically drawn in ghosted purple), highlighting a probable interim but limited decline, possibly, but not obligatedly, able to land at the speculative crossing of the tunneling and the 1-4 Line projection - See chart below.

David
+3 Reply
23 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD - KoD remained < 1.131 #fibonacci; Opens to bearish 0.73729 target via WW:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $USD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
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