Price rallied significantly against market expectation, but remained subdued to market geometry.
Dominant geometries here are Wave's ("ED") vs. Bill Wolfe's ("WW") patterns, both forming at the tipping-end of a multi-month swing.
There are 3 major banks that have taken positions against the pair versus none long. This institutional weigh will offer the siphoning pull down the twirling drain, pulling price incrementally downward.
The targets pronounced by these banks range between 0.746 and 0.761, with one smacked right at 0.750.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING MODEL:
Model too signaled a bias, defining the following targets:
1 - TG-x - 0.74312 - 08 JAN 2015
followed in order by a probable rallying to targets:
1 - TG-Hi - 0.78473 - 08 JAN 2015
2 - TG-x = 0.81332 - 08 JAN 2015
Aside from the dominant ED and WW aforementioned above, a larger granular pattern in the form of Scott Carney's Pattern remains probable. This is the pattern that has offered a near-alignment with model, defined above as "TG-x = 0.81332 - 08 JAN 2015".
The Pattern reflects a 50% (i.e.: five - zero, or ) retracement from completion of the . If you squeezed the chart a little, the trader might decipher a , which by definition might have defined its Point-C termination differently from the Model's 0.74312, but this is also why I do not use patterns for my trading. As background pattern, there are fine, though.
Overall, I would consider the force of institutional winds, combined with the reliable and Bill patterning as leading indicators of lead vectors when forming a directional bias here.
A Point-5 should offer a conservative target against a more aggressive Point-5-prime at TG-x = 74312.
Look for persistent Negative Divergences (not bearish!) in , hammering price down at every occasion.
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$NZDUSD - Point-4 shifted per Geo Anchor; Predictive Model remains set on 0.78473:
@tradingview $NZD $USD #RBNZ
$NZDUSD completed forecast geo at point-4; Bullish targets per Rredictive Model waiting:
@tradingview $NZD $USD
$NZDUSD moves as forecast; Breaks thru floor; 1-3 Line as next support; 0.73729 in force:
@tradingview $NZD $USD
Now, always trust that mid-point geometry between points 2 and 3 to offer an anchor for that tunneling, rather than believing in what price "appears" to be saying at this moment.
What I mean here is that the spike at the mid-point between points 2 and 3 could very well become an anchor point, while current price could decline significantly from current level to rest at a yet higher-low point, thus defining point-4 at the resting top of that tunneling projection.
This may appear a bit convoluted in words, but feasible in simple geometric deeds.
At this point, I would simply draw both tunneling lines based on what you have, while still adding a projection using that geometric anchor point.
What you will be left with are two lines, one with a much leveled slope. If price temporarily turned to the downside before completion Point-5, I would expect it to rest on the least-steep slope of the two before rallying to complete the geometry - Not an absolute probability, but a scenario that would make sense were we to stand back in the future and look back at this and so many other gros that accomplished this weaving path.
What I also added in the chart are the interim arrow (typically drawn in ghosted purple), highlighting a probable interim but limited decline, possibly, but not obligatedly, able to land at the speculative crossing of the tunneling and the 1-4 Line projection - See chart below.
$NZDUSD - KoD remained < 1.131 #fibonacci; Opens to bearish 0.73729 target via WW:
@tradingview $NZD $USD #forex