ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Short

Pending Short NZD/USD in High 0.85XX Region

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
122 15 0
Wait for price to hit top trend line (around high 0.85XX region) for a possible short.
Conservative take profit target at low 0.84XX region (previously resistance).
Liberal long term take profit target at 0.79XX region (highly doubt this will happen).
Due to not having a certain take profit target, I'd suggest using a trailing stop loss to lock in profits on the way down.
Consider exiting if price closes above the top trend line.
Length of trade is unknown             due to uncertain take profit target.

NOTE: This trade is heavily biased on whether or not RBNZ raises the interest rates next week. Markets are pricing in a possible rate increase.

If rates are raised: price may increase a bit but not much since it's already priced in. "Buy the rumour. Sell the news." Price should still drop a bit in the form of a retrace targeting the low 0.84XX region.
If rates aren't raised: expect a big drop.

I opened a new forex account to track the performance for my analysis here on trading view, you can see my entries on NZD/USD             here: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/FXWeeklyAnalysis/forexweeklyanalysis/864999.
ForceFollower
2 years ago
So, new highs in sight.
Reply
ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Definitely a possibility to see new highs for 2014. We have resistance levels coming in at 0.8540 (October 22, 2013) and 0.8580 (April 30, 2013). This represents the mid to high 0.85XX region but I'm leaning towards the high region for a possible short.
Reply
ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Yes, but as for new short positions, I'd like to see how price anchors at those highs first.
Reply
ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Valid point but I'm not a confirmation trader, I usually just enter when price hits my levels with calculated risk. Also, given NFP today, price will be moving too fast to execute orders manually so I already have my limit orders set up.
Reply
ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Also, just wanted to add, there are 4 potential set ups today and NZD/USD is not a priority in my eyes since I'm not that familiar with RBNZ's Monetary Policy. I'm more focused on what'll happen on EUR/USD & USD/CHF. Granted, I still have pending orders on NZD/USD at my levels but just not a full position.
Reply
Update: Price got up to 0.8522, which is near the 0.8540 resistance from October 22, 2013. Despite good NFP numbers pushing this pair down, I'm hopeful that bulls will continue to push this pair back up to the high 0.85XX region for my short entries due to the potential interest rate increase from the RBNZ.
Reply
ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I wouldn't call this up trend done. It's correcting deeply indeed, but I'll be looking to go long again as soon as an opportunity shows up. You'll meet me at the basic bull trend line.
Reply
ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Agreed, probably around low 0.84XX region for potential longs (I'll post a chart later)
Reply
ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Analysis has been posted.
Pending Long NZD/USD in 0.843X/0.839X region
Reply
Update: RBNZ increased the rates... surprise surprise lol, it was expected. Markets didn't push it up by much though compared to the previous move up from yesterday. I'm still looking for potential shorts up in the high 0.85XX region.
Reply
ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
There's a possibility of a false break of trend line to trap bulls and to run stops (majority of retail is short). So I'll be loading in 2 phases, within a tight range (10-20) of the downward trend line and within a wide range (100 pips above the trend line, up to the 2013 high of 0.8675)
Reply
ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Fib levels:
Short NZD/USD between 138 and 161.8 fib levels
Reply
ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Hunting for another buy opportunity. :-)
Reply
I opened a new forex account to track the performance for my analysis here on trading view, you can see my entries on NZD/USD here: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/FXWeeklyAnalysis/forexweeklyanalysis/864999.
Reply
ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Excellent. I admire your transparency.
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out