FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
205 3 3
Long term trend: Up
Medium term trend: Down
Significant levels: 0.84 (Horizontal Resistance), 0.811 (Horizontal Support), and 0.80 (Significant round number)

Long and Medium term trend are not the same. This is the perfect scenario we want to find to trade. Why is that? It's because it gives us more opportunity. As in this case, the long term trend is up, but the market is currently down. This gives us an opportunity to place our Long trade at a lower price.

The Fibonacci Retracement was drawn from the low of mid June (2013) to the previous high that was made. The mid of June 2013 is when the market started making a higher low, which supports its uptrend. That's why it is drawn like this. Currently, the price is near/at the 0.382 level of the Fibonacci Retracement . Also, the current price is at/near the Horizontal Support line (0.811). Another thing is that, the line CD that is forming is now almost the same as the line AB, which will be completed at/near the support line.

This signals that the market will probably reverse at this point and will be back to its long term trend which is up. Though there are many confirmations that this is a confluence area, anything can happen. That's why it is important for us to see how the market will react at this point in time.

This would be a very good opportunity to trade and you don't want to miss this.

Trade well.
Amen brother! I bought that shark pattern (Scott Carneys pattern 88.6% retracement fib cluster) looking for a 50% pullback of the recent downleg
is the uptrend starts effective now?
I think what you're saying is that the market is trying to go up as of the moment. In the 4 hour chart, the Bullish signs are starting to form. But, as you can see in the Daily chart, there is not much of a Bullish sign that we could trade. And also, I prefer to see the close of this Daily bar and not jump right away to trade. That is the more conservative approach. As you can see in the Daily chart, the previous bars are all Bearish, so I don't think you want to get caught against that momentum. What I like to see here is to complete the ABCD pattern. The price to touch the support and to form a Bullish signal for us to trade. There is nothing wrong if you would like to trade the lower timeframe (H4 or even H1). But if you look at the big picture, there is not much of a Bullish sign yet and you might want to wait for that. That's for me. I even want to wait for tomorrow's close of the Daily bar for more confirmation.
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