Kjetil_Johannesen

NZDUSD - A basket of opportunities presenting a dilemma

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
88 2 0
I just spotted 3 perfectly valid advanced patterns (2 Cyphers and 1 Bat), and theoretically one could trade them all. But does that mean you should? Not necessarily in my opinion.

This is a situation I still haven't defined a rule for in my tradingplan, so I guess it's about time that I implement that. In that regard I am wondering what YOU would do in this situation and what is YOUR experience with it?
I realize that the underlying trend is bullish , but my rules state that I will take every pattern when it presents itself regardless of the direction of my trend as per my testing.

I am considering several options here.
1. Following my rules for stop placement (1.131 fib ext from A-X) on advanced patterns, my stoploss for the pink Bat would exceed the entry for the blue Cypher . That would put me in 2 trades simultaneously on this pair. Therefore I would wait for the blue Cypher . The stoploss of the blue cypher would NOT exceed the entry of the green Cypher , so this would be ok to take, and then it would also be ok to take the green cypher since it's not in conflict with anything. I will therefore leave the green cypher out of the other options.

2. Cyphers have a statistically higher win percentage than Bats, so I will just skip the Bat if there's a possible Cypher instead.

3. Go for the pattern with the best risk/reward, which in this case would be the Bat with 1:138 as the Cypher has 1:0,99.

Anyone who would attack this differently?
I bellieve that the bat is the best option...also there is adoji in W1
Reply
Thank you for your reply.
Basically you mean the bat is the best option because you don't believe price will reach further as confirmed by your doji on W1, or because it has the best risk/reward?
Reply
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