The fib is there, the Head and shoulder Price Action is there... I feel good about going short. But... The news on the 11th might be a problem . And the US retail sales might be an issue as well. It is forecasted to go from 60% to 40% and that would be a good thing for NzD. So 2 POTENTIAL great pieces of news in one week is not good for a short. Or am I scaring myself and making these issues bigger than they are?
everybody is losing money nowadays.. the logic says short on the nzd as the rbnz is about to cut rates, but the kiwi has been soaring since Monday, so maybe most of the shorters are already out and the price might decline after the decision, although for a sustained decline the rbnz statement should sound really dovish. Otherwise, the RBA fiasco will happen again
went in too early and set a stop loss that is too close. if you had look left and take the second peak as guide for a stop loss you would have been ok. this could possible still head higher but at least you could have set to break even before that happen
NZDUSD rate cut has been priced in. Market is probably in a buy high yield, thus like RBA and AUD, even if RBNZ cut rate, NZD likely to go up. Instead have shorted EURNZD and GBPNZD 2 days before RBNZ. Shorted EURNZD at 1.5560, now 1.5360 +200pips. Shorted GBPNZD at 1.8330, now 1.7880 (+450pips)