FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
347 14 5
UP trend at the 4h time frame which reach the resistance level of a down canal at the 1d time frame specially with a nice divergence on the RSI indicator , all this giving us a first signal to SELL NZD against $ , waiting for confirmation by breaking out the UP canal or forming a reversal pattern or even a strong red candle is a good second signal to confirm our sell idea , crazy trader can open since now to profit a good R/R by putting a SL above daily resistance ...
On next week Monday, NZD has retail data of Christmas time. Perhaps, after that.... short???
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Well, here's what I think:
1) Haven't seen the USD so weak for weeks. Last time it was in Oct. 2013, if I remember well. And I expect it to stay weak for a while. And the kiwi is doing just fine, strong and not particularly overbought.
2) Last time the excursion downward (on your daily chart) failed to make it to the red lower parallel and was promptly pushed upward with a very strong bullish candle.
3) That gravestone doji on a daily chart was overcome to the upside, showing the bulls' strength.
4) The last swing high is way to high to place a stop above it for most traders.

That's why I'd find it hard to go short here. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't help thinking about this chart only in bullish terms... :-)
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alex.a ForceFollower
Well done ~ ^_^
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NizarRahalii ForceFollower
im with you for all what you said forcefollower , that is why im waiting for confirmation , price bellow the up channel or reversal pattern or strong red candle , sometimes price moves against our thoughts , therefor we used technical analysis , and the first rule is " TRADE WHAT YOU SEE NOT WHAT YOU THINK "
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i am curious what will happen here, looks like pennant, if we take closing prices in weekly/daily, the pennant is broken, target then weekly trendline 0,8600 possible.
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It was a good idea going short here, at least short-term. :-) Well done!
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NizarRahalii ForceFollower
thank you my friend , now im looking for a nice reversal pattern , like H&S pattern on 4h time frame
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ForceFollower NizarRahalii
It may be a good idea. But I don't think it's done rising. Just at least a little bit higher.
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NizarRahalii ForceFollower
YES ForceFollower , just waiting something like this :)
snapshot
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ForceFollower NizarRahalii
That's OK, Nizar. The momentum on H4 still favours the rising price action, but it ain't as bullish as before: failed to make a new high, took out the lows to the left, fell below some short MAs and the major low to the left was lower than the prior one of the same magnitude. Cons: hasn't retraced even to 0.382 (a sign of strength), which may also be interpreted as "hasn't done it YET".
Here's some video on that: http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/intraday-technical-video-alerts/2014/02/19/11/.
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alex.a ForceFollower
double bottom and the second one was lower.... which means it will rise quite high... though ~
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alex.a ForceFollower
agree ~ It has got total rejection. Great ~
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this is what im waiting for :)
snapshot
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ForceFollower NizarRahalii
A short position favoured. But it go now as high as 0.8328. Possible short entry at that level following some sign of weakness, target at 0.8210-0.8221, SL: 0.8350 or 0.8375 (better). Such a trade would not be in my top rank, but should be OK.
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