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NZD/USD supports at double top neckline, don’t get bull trapped

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
212 0 3
It has formed a double top pattern on daily charts with peak 1 at 0.6897 and peak 2 at 0.6883.

Although this pair has tested supports near neckline of double top at 0.6428, we could foresee more bearish pressure in the weeks to come.

Despite the breach of channel line resistance once at 0.6723, "Shooting star and Gravestone doji" patterns occur at peaks of 0.6722 and 0.6828 respectively to evidence further weakness.

More notably, it is observed that whipsaws on weekly price behavior (see grey shaded areas), the price curve lingering 21DMA and trend line , could not sustain the breakout, as a result it doesn't seem to sustain as stated earlier.

Volumes are mammoth on every price declines, so it is deemed as a conformity to the bearish trend as dipping price on a rising volume justifies the momentum of selling pressures. This would mean that ongoing bear run is mightier than short-term rallies.

RSI shows indecision to the existing price dips and jumps at 42.7168 levels, while same is the case with slow stochastic curve, no clarity near oversold zone.

The risk bias to antipodean currencies remains firmly to the downside in 2016.

Well, the advice is that long-term investors don't get bull trapped in this pair as it is clearly dipping within a southward channel that has moved way below 21DMA.

Hence, we are bearish on NZD for 2016 and forecast NZD/USD             at 0.59 by Q1 of 2016 and 0.61 by Q4 of 2016.

Trading tips: With spot FX at 0.6515, hovering around the channel resistance, it is better to short the rallies for targets towards neckline around 0.6450 levels and the next strong levels of support only at 0.6262.

One can initiate fresh shorts at current levels keeping 0.6575 as strict stop loss for the target of 150 to 200 pips.

We can eye on further dips on intraday terms as the long term downtrend to resume back again. The trade idea would be good to buy ATM binary puts on rallies for targets of 30-35 pips
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